Abstract:

This Harvard University study reports six cases of illicit trafficking of nuclear materials since 1992 and suggests that there are four potential sources of proliferation concern: the stockpile of nuclear weapons controlled by MOD, the stockpile of weapons-grade material that is produced and extracted from dismantled nuclear weapons by Minatom, the material produced by NPPs (including 30 tons of reactor-grade plutonium), and fissile material in research institutes and facilities. Although most diversions to date have been from the last source, the study predicts that more diversions from the stockpiles of weapons-grade and reactor-grade material, including serious incidents involving weapons-quantities, are plausible. [See also Paul Mann, Aviation Week & Space Technology, 'Nuclear Smuggling Called Direct Threat To U.S.,' 17 June 1996.]

Abstract Number:  19960340
Headline:  Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy
Date:  March 1996
Author:  Graham Allison, Owen Cote, Richard Falkenrath, and Steve Miller