Ukraine is capable of producing advanced intercontinental range ballistic missiles, and its missile industry is second only to Russia's among the former Soviet republics. The linchpin of this industry is the former Yuzhnoye Scientific Production Association, arguably the foremost intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) design and production facility in the Former Soviet Union, whose capabilities are matched only by a handful of U.S. and Russian missile enterprises. Ukraine's missile industry suffered considerably during the 1990s because of the severe economic crisis that afflicted the country. The crisis led to a deterioration of design and production infrastructure, as well as the loss of a qualified technical cadre at Ukraine's missile facilities.[4] Although Ukraine has attempted to embark on a number of joint projects with Western countries, implementation of these projects has been slow, leaving Russia as Ukraine's most important partner in this field and the sole source of funding for some of its missile enterprises. The combination of the difficult financial situation of Ukraine's missile facilities and their technological prowess has made them vulnerable targets for countries of proliferation concern.[5]

One of the remarkable aspects of Ukraine's missile industry is that its facilities were originally developed as components of a much larger Soviet missile and space industry. As a result, while Ukraine inherited outstanding capabilities in some areas (e.g., one of the world's most highly regarded ballistic missile design bureaus and production facilities), it is lacking in many other areas.[6] For example, the programmatic decisions made in Moscow on the direction of the Soviet rocket industry left Ukraine without its own rocket launch facilities, other than the ballistic missile silos of the Strategic Rocket Forces deployed on its territory. Whereas in most cases a country's missile industry is the product of long-term efforts directed at achieving a specific goal, Ukraine's is largely a random collection of former Soviet facilities that happen to be located on what became Ukrainian territory following the USSR's collapse.[7]

During its early years of independence, Ukraine's work on ballistic missile design and production ceased for a period of time. In spite of economic and other troubles, however, Kyiv still possesses the potential to manufacture ballistic missiles. In May and June 1997, the Secretary of the Ukrainian Security Council Volodymyr Horbulyn asserted that Ukraine retains the right to build and deploy short-range nuclear-capable missiles (with ranges below the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) threshold of 500km), should its security be threatened.[8] Since 2005, Ukrainian defense and industry officials have discussed ongoing efforts to indigenously design and produce a cruise missile and a tactical ballistic missile, possibly for export.[9]

Ukrainian facilities continue to produce space launch vehicles (SLVs) and components for them. Ukraine possesses Tsyklon and Zenit rocket types, with work on new variants reportedly continuing. In addition, Ukrainian firms are working on a project to convert retired SS-18 ICBMs into Dnepr SLVs for use in commercial space launches from Russia. Ukraine hopes to preserve as much of its rocket industry as possible, which it regards as the most important high-tech sector of its economy. However, due to economic difficulties, Kyiv's ability to provide necessary funding is limited. Ukraine is involved in a number of international space programs, including Sea Launch, a project to launch rockets from the Alcantara space launch facility in Brazil. As previously noted, Ukraine does not have its own space launch facility, so all launches using Ukrainian rockets take place from facilities in Kazakhstan, Russia, or the Sea Launch platform. There do not appear to be any Ukrainian plans to develop a domestic space launch facility.

As of February 2011, Ukraine was pursuing the following projects in the sphere of rocketry:

Sea Launch Project is an international project involving Ukrainian Pivdenne Design Bureau and Pivdenmash Machine-Building Plant, Boeing, Kvaerner, and Russia's RKK Energiya. The project's work focuses on commercial satellite launches of Zenit-3SL rockets from a sea platform. Ukrainian enterprises' total share in the project is 15 percent. The first Sea Launch-related contract with Ukrainian facilities took place on 11 September 2000, when Pivdenmash/Pivdenne Design Bureau signed a contract to deliver 80 Zenit-3SL rockets.

Kosmotras is a Russian-Ukrainian joint venture that conducts commercial satellite launches of Dnepr SLVs (converted SS-18 ICBMs) from Baykonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan and Yasny launch base in Russia's Orenburg region. Kosmotras has secured a number of foreign contracts for satellite launches. Since 2010, Kosmotras has performed 15 orbital flights for a variety of space agencies and commercial companies. It is not clear what the future of this joint venture will be, as SS-18 stocks are finite, and the number of such ICBMs available for commercial launches may have been reduced following the failure of START II to enter into force and the subsequent Russian decision to retain SS-18 ICBMs in service.[10]

Alcantara Tsyklon Space: In July 2002, Ukraine ratified an agreement with Brazil on long-term cooperation in the space sector, including the development of Brazil's Tsyklon-4 SLV launch vehicle. The cost of the project is estimated at $180 million, which will be equally shared by Ukraine and Brazil. Ukraine hopes that this cost will be recouped after 36 commercial launches. Over 50 Ukrainian firms are reportedly set to participate in this effort.[11] After some delays in the project, active cooperation began in 2006, and the first launch is expected in 2012.[12]

Sapsan Multi-Functional Missile Complex (MFMC): In 2005 President Viktor Yushchenko announced the development of the Sapsan MFMC, with the intention of supplying it to the Ukrainian military for use on the battlefield. Designed in 2006, the system will combine both tactical and theater-of-war missiles with a range of up to 280km. Although originally scheduled for deployment in 2015, the project has been delayed due to technical difficulties. There has also been debate as to whether or not foreign partners should be invited to take part in the project to hasten its completion. [13]

Russia remains Ukraine's most important foreign partner in the missile sector, with Russian companies playing central roles in most Ukrainian rocketry projects. Because Ukraine's missile industry consists of components of the former Soviet missile industry, it is still neither self-contained nor self-sufficient, and relies heavily on continued cooperation with its Soviet-era partners. In February 2001, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma signed a joint statement pledging both countries to expand cooperation on aerospace. Details of the agreement included joint space services, continuation of the Dnepr, Tsiklon, and Zenit SLV projects, and support for Sea Launch. [14]

However, Russia requires Ukrainian assistance as well, as many prominent missile types still in use by the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces were designed, manufactured, and/or assembled at Ukrainian facilities. Ukraine therefore remains involved in the modernization of the Russian strategic arsenal. During the debates in the Russian parliament on START II ratification, Pivdenmash reportedly received a Russian request for information on the feasibility of restarting ICBM production in Ukraine.[15] Additionally, in 2003 Ukraine's National Space Agency transferred approximately 30 non-deployed SS-19s to Russia, a move that helped modernize the Russian SS-19 force. Today, Ukraine's enterprises, under contract with the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces, have continued to provide a wide range of services aimed at extending the service life of those missile complexes still in use. The contract for life extension of Russia's SS-18 [NATO designation SS-18 'Satan'] missiles systems was renewed in January 2008. [16]

There have, nonetheless, been more recent indications that Russia wishes to reduce its reliance on Ukrainian technical expertise. Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Sergey Lavrov suggested in February 2009 that Russia wishes to ensure that its weaponry is both domestically produced and maintained. Lavrov stated that "we can be entirely independent of Ukrainians when we completely re-arm the Strategic Missile Troops and the Air Force with domestic weaponry." [17] Such independence may, however, prove difficult to achieve until missiles such as the SS-18 are removed from active service.

Ukraine has also made attempts to attract investments from other countries for its missile industry. In particular, Ukraine has approached Japan with proposals for investments and cooperation in space exploration and the aerospace industry. Japan, however, does not appear to have shown much interest.[18] Ukraine has also approached the United States in the hopes of providing SLVs for launching components of the U.S. National Missile Defense (NMD) system into orbit. The former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Carlos Pascual announced on 11 April 2002 that the United States and Ukraine may cooperate in the area of anti-missile defense. Pascual told journalists that Ukraine has some of the world's best space launch technologies at its disposal, and that Ukraine understands that WMD technology proliferation to states of concern may become the greatest global threat.[19] Nevertheless, the generally supportive U.S. attitude has yet to translate into actual U.S. government contracts.

In spite of the problems that Ukraine faces in modernizing its missile production technology, it is likely to continue to export significant quantities of its existing systems over the short-term. This is particularly the case where the Zenit carrier rockets are concerned. [20] As a result of the Ministry of Defense's 2008 'White Book', specified defense contractors were able to receive licenses to modernize the S-300 and Buk-M1 anti-aircraft missile complexes. As of 2010, Ukrainian Major-General Yuriy Halushko outlined plans to equip the Air Force with upgraded S-125M anti-aircraft missile systems. [21] The highest levels of Ukraine's government are committed to maintaining Kyiv's expertise in the area of missile technology. At a press conference in April 2009, President Yushchenko stated that he believed Ukraine would be producing its own tactical weapons in two or three years, otherwise "if Ukraine thoughtlessly approaches the restoration of its own missile potential, it will cease to exist as a missile state in five or six years." [22]

Sources:
[1] Yuri Dubinin, "Ukraine's Nuclear Ambitions: Reminiscences of the Past," Russia in Global Affairs, 13 April 2004, http://eng.globalaffairs.ru.
[2] "The Treaty Between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms and Associated Documents," Department of State, www.state.gov.
[3] Pavel Podvig (ed.), Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces (Massachusetts: MIT Press, 2004), pp. 150-167.
[4] "Ukrainian Space Activities and Industries," International Cooperation in Space, www.npointercos.jp.
[5] Jonathan P. Sunray, Lt Col, "Ukrainian Missile Nonproliferation: the Challenge for the United States' Policy of Engagement," Air War College, Air University, April 1998.
[6] David Hoffman, The Dead Hand: The Untold Story of the Cold War Arms Race and Its Dangerous Legacy (New York: Doubleday, 2009), pp. 439-458.
[7] Pavel Podvig (ed.), Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces (Massachusetts: MIT Press, 2004), pp. 150-167.
[8] Interfax; in "Government Has Right to Build Missiles 'if Threatened'," FBIS-TAC-97-169, 18 June 1997.
[9] Nikolai Sokov, "Ukrainian defense minister says his country will not acquire nuclear weapons; announces new missile program," WMD Insights, April 2006. www.wmdinsights.org.
[10] ISC Kosmotras Website, www.kosmotras.ru.
[11] Interfax; in "Ukraine, Brazil launch construction of new booster rocket," FBIS Document CEP20020724000277, 24 July 2002.
[12] "Na 'Khartrone' treniruiut mozgi 'Tsiklonov [On "Khartrone" Tsiklon is mentally trained]," Vremya, 11 April 2008; in Integrum Techno, www.integrum.com.
[13] "Site says faults found in draft of new Ukrainian missile," Kiev Defense-Express, 20 March 2009, OSC Document CEP20090324950211.
[14] Interfax; in "Russia, Ukraine to expand cooperation in aerospace field," FBIS Document CEP20010212000161, 12 February 2001.
[15] "Vozobnovleniye proizvodstva boyevykh raket v Dnepropetrovske vozmozhno, no potrebuyet ochen bolshikh sredstv," UNIAN, No. 006 (146), 5-11 February 2001.
[16] "Putin signs into law ratification of Russian-Ukrainian treaty extending use of 15P118M missile system," Interfax, 12 February 2008, OSC Document CEP20080212950129.
[17] "Russia not to break mil tech ties with Ukraine at once," ITAR-TASS, 27 February 2009, OSC Document CEP20090227950029.
[18] "Ukraine Calls for Japan Cash for Space Industry," Reuters, 20 May 1997.
[19] "SShA i Ukraina mogut sotrudnichat v sfere protivoraketnoy oborony - posol," Interfax, 11 April 2002.
[20] "Mixed prospects for Ukraine's arms exports, defence expert claims," Kiev Defense-Express, 19 February 2009, OSC Document CEP20090220950168.
[21] Serhiy Zhurets, "General Details Plans to Re-Equip Ukranian Air Defense Units," BBC Monitoring Service, 17 May 2010, www.bbc.co.uk.
[22] "Ukraine to start producing own tactical missiles in 2-3 years," Interfax, 6 April 2009, OSC Document CEP20090406964036.