The United States is on yellow alert against the threat of terrorism, Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge announced yesterday.  While unveiling a new color-coded alert system, Ridge said that the current status means the threat of attack is “significant” but not “severe” (see GSN, March 11).

Authorities called for yellow alert partly because they have evidence that al-Qaeda is trying to regroup and has members in the United States, Ridge said.

“Because of all the information that we know, we believe that we are in an elevated level — we have a significant risk of terrorist attacks,” he said (Philip Shenon, New York Times, March 13).

An elevated alert will continue “for the foreseeable future,” Ridge said, adding that downgrading the risk level to green — a low-level risk of terrorist attacks — is probably “years away.”

“Even in a low level of risk, there’s a recognition that the possibility or the potential of a terrorist attack still exists in the world today,” he said.  “And that, I think, is a permanent condition in the world.”

Red Light, Green Light

The new Homeland Security Advisory System rates threats red for a severe risk of terrorist attacks, orange for high risk, yellow for significant risk, blue for general risk and green for low risk.

The system includes general guidelines for responding to different alerts, but mostly it leaves specific response plans to state and local authorities, who will be responsible for providing the public with response instructions.

State and local officials and private businesses are expected to develop response plans for each alert level over the next few months, Ridge said.  Federal, state and local authorities eventually should develop a “common language” of homeland security, he said.

The general guidelines say that authorities should implement basic protective and assessment measures on green alert and add additional measures with each higher level.  On yellow alert, some of the recommended measures include increased surveillance of critical locations and implementation of certain contingency and emergency response plans.

At the orange level, authorities would take more precautions at public events, restrict access in certain areas to essential personnel only and implement other actions.  At red, authorities would monitor and possibly constrain transportation systems, increase personnel to address critical emergency needs, close public and government facilities and assign emergency response teams.

System Based on Intelligence Information

The U.S. attorney general is responsible for setting alert levels based on information from the CIA, FBI and other agencies and on consultations with the Homeland Security Office and top government officials.  Ridge said he expects the attorney general to share information about alert changes with the public, except in extreme cases when secrecy is necessary, such as if authorities are about to make a major arrest, the Washington Post reported.

Officials will use a checklist to evaluate information and set alert levels, Ridge said.

“Is it a credible source?  Have we been able to corroborate this threat?  Is it specific as to time or place or method of attack?  What are the consequences if the attack is carried out?  Can the attack be deterred?” he said.

Despite the checklist, the alert system is more art than science, Ridge said.  It is modeled after the military’s DefCon threat scale, the Post reported (Bill Miller, Washington Post, March 13).

Not Yet Official

Details of the alert system are not yet finalized, according to the White House.  The plan is open to suggestions for refinements from government officials, public interest groups and the private sector for 45 days.  After an additional period, the attorney general will submit proposed changes for the system to the U.S. president, according to the presidential directive (White House release, March 11).

Many Officials Welcome the System

Many state and local officials welcomed the system, which was implemented due to criticism that federal threat alerts since the Sept. 11 attacks have been confusing and vague, the Post reported.

Under the old alerts, “we really had no degree of information as to how to advise our citizens.  On some of the alerts, citizens would maybe not go to work, or not go to school or quit flying.  And that wasn’t the initial intent,” said Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory.

The system’s defined threat levels will be “incredibly helpful,” said Maj. Gen. Timothy Lowenberg of the National Guard, who is responsible for coordinating homeland security in Washington state.  The new system will allow synchronization between the alert message and response, he said (Miller, Washington Post).

The International Association of Chiefs of Police also welcomed the new system, saying it would help local authorities organize response efforts and advise the public.

“This is a good simplistic method to get the message through,” said William Berger, president of the association and chief of police in North Miami Beach (Shenon, New York Times).

The new alert system is “a step in the right direction,” but its effectiveness will depend on the information used to determine the threat levels, said Representative Jane Harman (D-Calif.).  The FBI and other agencies must share information with local authorities, she said (Miller, Washington Post).

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