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Threat Assessment: Recent Events Will Not Sway Doomsday Clock By Mike Nartker Those events were already factored into the last repositioning, said Bulletin Publisher Stephen Schwartz. When the hands of the clock were last moved in February to seven minutes to midnight, aspects of the U.S-Russian arms reduction treaty were already known even though the treaty itself had not been signed, he said. Similarly, the tensions between India and Pakistan over the disputed Kashmir region were already in evidence, with both sides’ military forces positioned on the border, he said. The only change now is an elevation in rhetoric, Schwartz added. “We felt we’ve already had our say,” he said. “We’ve already fired our warning shot. Like we said in February, ‘The clock [is] ticking.’” The Doomsday Clock’s current position is identical to its position when it was created in 1947 as a way to graphically illustrate the current worldwide threat of nuclear war — represented by midnight. Before being adjusted in February, the clock was set at nine minutes to midnight, which represented tensions resulting from Indian and Pakistani nuclear weapon tests. It would take a real commitment to arms reduction by both the United States and Russia, in addition to the new treaty, to help move the clock farther away from midnight, Schwartz said (see GSN, May 30). In a February press release, the Bulletin said it would take a move by both the United States and Russia to reduce their nuclear weapons arsenals down to less than 1,000 warheads each by the end of the decade. Even though hostile rhetoric between India and Pakistan has led many observers to become concerned that tensions might flare into an all-out nuclear war, a mere ratcheting down of the tensions would also not move the hands away from midnight, Schwartz said (see related GSN story, today). Only a serious attempt to restart dialogue between the two states and a demilitarization of the border would be a factor, he said. Kashmir Invasion If India or Pakistan were to invade the other, however, that too by itself would not lead to a change in the clock’s hands, Schwartz said, adding that such an attack alone would not be enough to fundamentally change global security. The Bulletin would instead take a wait-and-see approach, as it did with the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, which occurred too quickly to become a factor, he said. “The clock reacts to events,” Schwartz said. “It does not anticipate them.” Single events and factors rarely result in a change to the hands of the Doomsday Clock, Schwartz said, noting that the only single event to lead to such a change was the detonation of the Soviet atomic bomb in 1949. If a nuclear strike resulted in the destruction of a major Indian or Pakistani city, such as New Delhi or Islamabad, and other major nations were drawn into the conflict, however, that scenario could move the hands rapidly toward midnight — doomsday, he said. Schwartz noted several other potential factors in the next repositioning of the clock’s hands, such as growing concerns of proliferation of Russian nuclear materials and fears that terrorists could acquire weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, June 4). If the Bush administration were to take an even more hard-line and unilateralist approach to international agreements, such as scrapping the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, that too could become a factor, Schwartz said. Another factor that could lead to the clock moving closer to midnight would be a re-formation of the Soviet Union, Schwartz said, adding, “That’s about as likely to happen as the Cubs winning the World Series, so I don’t worry about it.” For further information, see: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
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