By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A high-profile national missile defense intercept test recently cancelled by the Bush administration could have provided new insight into the system’s effectiveness just prior to the system’s first scheduled deployment in September 2004, according to a congressional audit (see GSN, April 18).

The primary objective of the Integrated Flight Test-16 was similar to that of previous tests, General Accounting Office officials said in an analysis released yesterday.  The GAO produced the analysis in response to a request by Senator Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), who is the senior Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces.

“The test was planned to assess the ability of GMD [Ground-based Midcourse Defense program] components to work together as an integrated element, capable of engaging and destroying a mock warhead,” GAO officials said.  The test, however, would have “provided an opportunity to assess the system’s capability under a number of new engagement conditions,” they noted.

The test also would have “increased the agency’s knowledge regarding the feasibility and effectiveness of GMD’s initial defensive capability, which DoD still plans to begin fielding in September 2004,” according to GAO officials.

Critics have charged the system has not yet received sufficient testing to be proven feasible and effective enough to be deployed, and claim the Missile Defense Agency has simplified and cancelled tests to bolster the test record prior to deployment.

Pentagon officials have asserted that the intercept record — five hits in eight attempts — shows the system could work, although they have acknowledged that elements of the tests were controlled and the system is not ready to be tested under operationally realistic conditions.  Officials have argued that a deployment of even a very limited capability is beneficial for addressing potential missile threats from North Korea.

Following reports of the cancellation of IFT-16 — which experts had dubbed the “dress rehearsal” for the deployment — there have been additional reports that three more tests scheduled for the coming years, IFT-25, -27 and –28, also have been cancelled, bringing the total number of cancelled tests disclosed this year to nine.

A Missile Defense Agency spokesman said last month that the cancellation of IFT-16 and a focus on a nonintercept test would better meet the program’s needs at that time.

New Conditions Would Have Been Introduced

GAO officials say the planned “conditions and components” of IFT-16 “differ from those in earlier tests.”

The analysis said the interception of the mock warhead would have been attempted at a location much closer to U.S. territory.  So far, previous intercept attempts have been over the mid-Pacific — much farther from the United States and much closer to the interceptor launch point, according to the analysis.  The first intercept in the new region will be attempted in IFT-17, which is scheduled for after the system’s deployment, GAO officials wrote.

The trial also would have been the first to flight test an upgraded early warning radar at Beale Air Force Base in California and a new version of the system’s battle-management software, according to GAO officials.

“Flight tests of both the battle-management software and the radar will be delayed until the radar certification flight — a nonintercept test denoted IFT-16A — which is scheduled for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2004,” the analysis noted.

With the cancellation of the test, the Missile Defense Agency plans to have a 13-month gap between the prior-scheduled intercept test, IFT-15, scheduled for January 2004, and IFT-17, scheduled for February 2005, GAO officials claimed

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