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U.S. Plans: Physicists Find Boost-Phase Approach Impractical By David Ruppe It found that the brief time needed for an enemy rocket to boost into space would provide the United States with little opportunity to destroy them unless U.S. forces were prepositioned as close as 400 to 1,000 kilometers to the enemy missiles. Even then, the approach may not be feasible, the study said. “Defending the United States against solid-propellant ICBMs would be impractical in many cases, because of their short burn times,” said the American Physical Society in a release announcing its 150-page scientific and technical feasibility study, Boost-Phase Intercept Systems for National Missile Defense. Missile-defense experts, mostly from academic institutions around the country, prepared the report. “Even against longer-burning, liquid-propellant ICBMs that North Korea or Iran might initially deploy, a boost-phase defense would have limited use due to the requirement that interceptors be based close to potential missile flight paths,” it said. It said, however, that boost-phase defenses could be technically possible against short- or medium-range missiles launched from ships off U.S. coasts. In such a scenario, U.S. ships with interceptors would need to be sailing less than 40 kilometers from the attacking ships, it said. Challenges Acknowledged The Bush administration has been pursuing a multilayered approach to developing a national missile defense, with the idea of developing and deploying different systems to create overlapping defenses using varied technologies. Boost-phase systems — potentially using land-, sea-, air- and space-based systems — are considered longer-term goals. The APS study estimates that initial deployment of the major systems would take 10 years. The Department of Defense’s Missile Defense Agency is planning initial concept demonstrations of the technologies in 2004 for the Airborne Laser (see GSN, March 7), in 2005 for an envisioned new missile interceptor, and much later for a space-based laser. With respect to the missile interceptor, it aims to make “product-line decisions” in the next few years and have an initial capability deployed by 2010. The administration this year requested $626.3 million for this boost-phase work in fiscal 2004. The Senate Appropriations Committee, however, last week cut funding for a boost-phase interceptor by $175 million for fiscal 2004 while otherwise increasing spending for additional midcourse interceptors by $200 million, Defense Week reported this week (see GSN, July 14). The Missile Defense Agency previously has acknowledged that effective boost-phase defenses would require “quick reaction times” and “high-confidence decision-making.” It is developing faster interceptor capabilities and also high-powered lasers for the Airborne Laser. “Thus, resources have been allocated to develop both kinetic and directed energy capabilities in an effort to provide options for multiple engagement opportunities and basing modes to address a variety of timing and geographic constraints,” according to an agency fact sheet. The APS report concluded, though, that even very large and fast interceptors “that pushed the state of the art would in most cases be unable to intercept solid-propellant ICBMs before they released their warheads,” according to the release. It also said that the Airborne Laser system currently under development would have a limited range that would require it to be so close to the enemy that it would be vulnerable to a counterattack. A space-based system, it said, would be reaction time-constrained and also could require a sizable commitment of resources — 1,000 or more orbiting satellites would be needed to ensure that one would be in place to intercept a single missile, requiring a potential tenfold increase to U.S. space-launch capabilities. “It is crucial that decisions about large-scale investments in weapons systems take into account their technical feasibility,” said APS President Myriam Sarachik in a statement. “The APS hopes this report will help in evaluating whether to build boost-phase defense systems,” she added.
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