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Iran Avoids International Sanction Over Nuclear Program From Monday, November 29, 2004 issue.

Iran Avoids International Sanction Over Nuclear Program

By Greg Webb, Global Security Newswire

VIENNA — Iran today successfully dodged today an escalation of the international response to its nuclear activities. A resolution completed by the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors criticizes Iran for hiding two decades of nuclear research until recently, but does not refer the matter to the U.N. Security Council, as some nations, particularly the United States, had sought (see GSN, Nov. 26).

The resolution capped several days of turbulent talks that ended when agency officials confirmed today that Iran has suspended all of its uranium enrichment activities, including 20 centrifuges that Iran had sought to exempt from the suspension at the outset of the meeting.

The resolution “is an important milestone on the long and difficult road to establish the nature of Iran’s nuclear program,” agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei told reporters after the meeting ended.

The resolution “signals the commencement of a new phase,” said senior Iranian diplomat Sirous Naseri. “This board meeting was the first pit stop following Paris agreement for the whole of Europe to delivering on their end of the deal,” he said, referring to the pact signed earlier this month between Iran and three European Union countries, in which Tehran vowed to suspend its enrichment related-activities as long as future talks on normalizing trade and political relations continued.

Despite the board resolution, the details of the suspension, particularly of the rules for the 20 centrifuges, remain muddled as Iranian diplomats and agency officials did not provide particulars to reporters.

Iranian officials suggested that some activities could continue.

“We said there would be no testing. Definitely we are not going to introduce any material, any [uranium] gas. We are not testing,” top Iranian nuclear negotiation Hossein Mousavian said this afternoon.

ElBaradei did not explain further the details of the suspension, but expressed confidence that its terms would not permit any significant actions.

“The suspension is comprehensive, is complete,” he said. “It does not include any activities that are related to enrichment or reprocessing. I want to make that very clear.  That includes the 20 centrifuges that are now under our surveillance.”

Some nations nevertheless remained critical of the suspension details.

“We see a Webster’s Dictionary definition of suspension,” said a Western diplomat. “To suspend something means ‘cease completely.’”

The suspension was announced earlier this month following an agreement between Iran and three EU nations: France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The scope of the suspension has been under debate since the beginning of last week, when Iran sent two letters to the agency disclosing that it would exempt as many as 20 centrifuge components from the suspension and that it would use them to continue research and development work.

After lengthy weekend talks between EU and Iranian diplomats, however, Iran agreed to include the disputed equipment in the suspension, although the centrifuge components would not be placed under IAEA seal as agency inspectors have done with other machinery. Instead, the equipment would be monitored by cameras which could see if any work was underway.

This issue had loomed over the board meeting, where many members, particularly the United States, remain skeptical that Iran’s nuclear activities are peaceful. Even agency Director General ElBaradei expressed a cautious note last week.

“A confidence deficit has been created, and confidence needs to be restored. Iran’s active cooperation and full transparency is therefore indispensable,” he said in his statement to the board’s opening session Thursday.

Observers here have questioned Iran’s strategy of announcing a roadblock shortly before the meeting, but a Western diplomat familiar with the agency said Iran’s decision process had begun two weeks earlier. Iran had come to the agency to ask which of two options the agency preferred: Iran would announce the exemption prior to the board meeting or it would announce it afterward.

Ultimately, Tehran decided that the international backlash would be less if it disclosed its plans before the meeting began, according to the diplomat.

That strategy also gave Iran some leverage in shaping the language of today’s resolution, which is significantly less critical and demanding of Iran than earlier versions.

The Progression of Drafts

The initial draft resolution, circulated Nov. 22, contained several elements that Iran found objectionable. In particular, Tehran opposed language asking it “to allow unrestricted access to all sites as deemed necessary by the agency.” Allowing inspectors complete freedom of movement in the nation would have been unprecedented with the exception of Iraq following the 1991 Gulf War.

In addition, the Nov. 22 draft included “trigger language” calling on the agency’s director general “to report immediately to the board should the agency encounter evidence that the suspension is not fully implemented, or be prevented from monitoring all elements of the suspension.”

Following meetings between the EU nations and Iran, European diplomats circulated a second draft that eased the disputed language. They rolled back the access demand, calling for “Iran to provide the access deemed necessary by the agency to all locations, in line with the Additional Protocol.”

The additional protocol to a country’s IAEA safeguards agreement provides the agency with authority to conduct more intrusive monitoring of nuclear activities there.

The trigger language was also modified, calling for the director general “to report without delay to the board should the agency find that the suspension is not fully sustained, or should the agency be prevented from verifying all elements of the suspension.” This language appeared to raise the threshold for reporting and reduce the time urgency for the director general to act.

Today’s resolution includes additional changes in Iran’s favor. The access demand has dropped the phrase “to all locations,” and the trigger language no longer has any time element for the director general to report problems. Instead, it calls for the director general simply “to inform board members should the suspension not be fully sustained.”

In addition, today’s resolution repeatedly notes that Iran’s suspension is a voluntary measure, one not required by any Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty commitments. Specifically, the resolution says, “This suspension is a voluntary confidence-building measure, not a legal obligation.”

The resolution also affirms that Iran has the right to develop peaceful nuclear energy and does not call for the IAEA board to automatically discuss Iran at its next meeting. Instead, the resolution “requests the director general to report to board on his findings, as appropriate.” That language mirrors a formulation crafted earlier in the meeting for a statement on South Korea (see GSN, Nov. 26).

U.S., Israeli Response

The United States issued a scathing statement today blasting Iran’s nuclear behavior, criticizing its negotiating tactics and threatening to bypass the IAEA board by initiating a U.N. Security Council debate by itself.

“Iran has repeatedly demonstrated bad faith, and the United States has long lost any illusions that Iran’s ultimate intentions are peaceful,” according to the nine-page statement, read in part to the board by U.S. Ambassador Jackie Sanders.

Reuters reported yesterday that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said the IAEA and Europe were doing too little to prevent Iran from manufacturing nuclear arms.

“Iran is making every effort to possess a nuclear weapon. It seems that the steps taken by the IAEA and the Europeans are insufficient to stop Iran’s nuclear program,” Sharon told Newsweek magazine.


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