U.S. Intelligence Exaggerated Iraq’s WMD, Report Says

The U.S. intelligence community exaggerated prewar Iraq’s alleged WMD capabilities, according to a report released today by the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (see GSN, July 8).

The report says that the conclusions made in a 2002 National Intelligence Estimate on Iraqi nuclear, chemical and biological efforts “either overstated or were not supported by the underlying intelligence reporting. A series of failures, particularly in analytical trade craft, led to the mischaracterization of the intelligence,” according to Reuters (Tabassum Zakaria, Reuters, July 9).

“This was a global intelligence failure,” said committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), according to the Associated Press .

The report also accuses intelligence analysts of engaging in “group think” assumptions that prewar Iraq possessed WMD stockpiles, which have not been found subsequently. According to the report, analysts worked from such assumptions when evaluating information and ignored or discounted information that did not correspond to their assumptions, AP reported.

“This ‘group think’ dynamic led intelligence community analysts, collectors and managers to both interpret ambiguous evidence as conclusively indicative of a WMD program and to ignore or minimize evidence that Iraq did not have active and expanding weapons of mass destruction programs,” the report says.

In addition, the report repeatedly criticizes CIA Director George Tenet, who is set to formally resign Sunday, for failing to include dissenting views from the Defense and State Department intelligence services in his reports to officials, AP reported (Associated Press/Los Angeles Times, July 9). The Senate committee found, though, no evidence that Bush administration officials sought to pressure analysts into reaching certain judgments, according to Reuters.

“The committee did not find any evidence that administration officials attempted to coerce, influence or pressure analysts to change their judgments related to Iraq's weapons of mass destruction capabilities,” the report says.

Many of the problems found in the U.S. intelligence community’s performance regarding prewar Iraq will need extensive reforms to resolve, according to the report.

“Most, if not all, of these problems stem from a broken corporate culture and poor management, and will not be solved by additional funding and personnel,” it says (Zakaria, Reuters).

White House press secretary Scott McClellan said today that the report “agrees with what we have said, which is we need to take steps to continue strengthening and reforming our intelligence capabilities so we are prepared to meet the new threats that we face in this day and age” (Associated Press/Los Angeles Times).

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