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Nuclear Deterrence Theorist Wins Nobel Prize
A retired University of Maryland professor won the Nobel Prize in economics yesterday for his work in applying game theory to a number of complex international issues, including nuclear deterrence and arms control (see GSN, Oct. 7). Thomas Schelling “had a profound impact on military theorists and practitioners in the Cold War era, played a major role in establishing ‘strategic studies’ as an academic field of study and may well have contributed significantly to deterrence and disarmament among the superpowers,” said the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences in describing his accomplishments. He shared the award with Robert Aumann of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. The two described the idea that adversaries could avoid conflict by establishing credible counterstrike capabilities. Such theories of deterrence helped to prevent a nuclear exchange during the Cold War, according to the Washington Post. Game theory “depends on what one anticipates the partner or adversary would do,” Schelling said yesterday at a press conference. It could be used “to discipline a child or deal with employees, or employers or neighbors,” he said (Nell Henderson, Washington Post, Oct. 11). The concept of mutual assured destruction, so prevalent during the U.S.-Soviet face-off, could still apply in the post-Cold War world, he said. Islamic terrorists considering using biological weapons, for example, might think twice if they realize that a very contagious disease could easily spread to the Muslim world. “Anyone who appreciates what a smallpox attack would lead to globally might be largely deterred,” Schelling said (Stephen Manning, Associated Press/Boston Globe, Oct. 10). Still, there is more uncertainty with terrorists, he said, because “it is difficult to figure out what their objectives are.” Schelling and Aumann will share $1.3 million in prize money (Washington Post).
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