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Experts Question U.S. Intelligence on Alleged Iran Nuclear Warhead Experiments
Intelligence presented to International Atomic Energy Agency officials by the United States in July suggesting an Iranian attempt to build a nuclear warhead has come under fire by some experts, the New York Times reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 11). Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Robert Joseph led the briefing, which was comprised of computer simulations and accounts of experiments found on what was said to be a stolen Iranian laptop computer, the Times reported. Joseph declined to discuss classified material from the briefing but said the intelligence was one of various indicators “that together lead to the conclusion Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons capability.” Some international analysts, however, have expressed doubts about the material, in part because U.S. officials have refused to divulge the computer’s origin. “I can fabricate that data,” said a senior European diplomat. “It looks beautiful, but is open to doubt.” However, a dozen officials and nuclear weapons experts in Europe and the United States well versed in the intelligence called it credible evidence that Iran was trying to build a warhead. “They’ve worked problems that you don’t do unless you’re very serious,” said a European arms official. “This stuff is deadly serious.” One U.S. official said notations in the documents indicated that the Iranians had conducted experiments. “This wasn’t just some theoretical exercise,” he said. Tehran has denied any knowledge of the warhead plans. “We are sure that there are no such documents in Iran,” said Ali Larijani, Tehran’s top nuclear negotiator. “I have no idea what they have or what they claim to have. We just hear the claims.” One senior intelligence official questioned whether, if the documents were authentic, Iran had actually been success in executing the plan. “It’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking that beautiful pictures represent reality,” the official said. “But that may not be the case.” Some European diplomats are concerned that confronting Iran with the warhead studies could undermine negotiations and cause Tehran to expel international nuclear inspectors, according to the Times. “It’s a card that will explode the system in place, so the question becomes when and how you play it,” said a senior European diplomat. “If there is information that can serve to make progress with the Iranians, without blowing up the system, that’s better” (Broad/Sanger, New York Times, Nov. 13). One U.S. nuclear expert today disputed the characterization of the device depicted in the documents as a “warhead.” The information instead describes a re-entry vehicle for a missile, Institute for Science and International Security President David Albright said in a press statement (ISIS release, Nov. 14). Iran yesterday denied attempting to design a nuclear warhead, the Associated Press reported “This is only a rubbish scenario introduced to affect the Nov. 24 meeting of the (IAEA) Board of Governors,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi. “The case just led to joking among our colleagues here. We do not handle our confidential affairs on laptops” (Associated Press/Times of India, Nov. 13). Asefi confirmed yesterday that Tehran would not accept a nuclear compromise plan that involved outsourcing its uranium enrichment, AFP reported. “Enrichment should be carried out on Iranian soil, as other Iranian officials have said before,” he said, reiterating a statement Saturday by Iranian Atomic Energy Organization head Gholamreza Aghazadeh (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 13). However, a European official and a diplomat close to the U.N. nuclear watchdog played down the rejection, noting that Aghazadeh had not seen the plan, AP reported yesterday. IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei plans to present the offer to officials in Tehran within days, diplomats said. The European official said the European Union and the United States have both endorsed the compromise deal and ElBaradei’s visit (George Jahn, Associated Press/Boston Globe, Nov. 13). Meanwhile, early results from Nov. 1 agency inspections at Iran’s Parchin military installation have revealed no nuclear activity, diplomats said Friday. “The very first preliminary results have not found anything so far,” a diplomat close to the agency told Agence France-Presse. Another diplomat said more laboratory results were expected, though they are not expected before the Nov. 24 agency meeting. One diplomat said evidence of nuclear activity was unlikely to be found at Parchin, given the amount of time allotted Tehran in preparing for the inspectors’ visit. “We don’t expect those samples to show any undeclared nuclear activities, after all the time Iran was given to sanitize those sites,” said the diplomat (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Nov. 11).
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