Missing Russian Nuclear Material Could be Used to Produce Weapon, CIA Chief Warns

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Enough Russian nuclear material is unaccounted for that “those with know-how” could construct a nuclear weapon if they were to obtain it, CIA Director Porter Goss said yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 11).

Goss told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence during its annual worldwide threat hearing that he could not be confident that the material had not fallen into the hands of terrorists.

“I can’t make that assurance. I can’t account for some of the material, so I can’t make the assurance about its whereabouts,” he said.

Senior Russian officials have repeatedly denied allegations of lost Russian nuclear weapons or materials. Many nonproliferation experts, however, have questioned such denials.

Vladimir Rybachenkov of the Russian Embassy in Washington said of Goss’ claim, “I don’t believe it’s true.”

In the past 20 years, Rybachenkov said, there have been no reported thefts or disappearances of Russian weapon-grade nuclear material. “This is a fact,” he told Global Security Newswire.

Goss said yesterday that the risk of theft or diversion of Russian WMD materials and technologies “is a continuing concern.” Committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) said he hoped additional funding would be provided for efforts to secure Russian weapons of mass destruction. 

Russia also remains “an important source” of weapons technology and materials for other nations, Goss said.

During yesterday’s hearing, Goss and other senior U.S. intelligence officials outlined for lawmakers potential threats to the United States in a number of countries of concern, including Iran, North Korea and Pakistan. The officials also described the continued threat posed by terrorist groups to the United States.

The officials sought to reassure lawmakers’ concerns about the credibility of their assessments of various threats, noting the intelligence improvements that have occurred following failed efforts to assess prewar Iraq’s alleged WMD efforts. For example, the CIA has increased its number of intelligence “collectors” and analysts and has sought to encourage “contrarian analysis,” Goss said.

Defense Intelligence Agency Director Vice Adm. Lowell Jacoby warned that Iran was likely to develop a nuclear weapon “early in the next decade” barring constraints imposed through a nonproliferation agreement (see related GSN story, today).

“Iran is likely continuing nuclear weapons-related endeavors in an effort to become the dominant regional power and deter what it perceives as the potential for U.S. or Israeli attacks. We judge that Iran is devoting significant resources to its weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs,” Jacoby said in his prepared testimony.

Iran has long claimed, however, that its nuclear program is intended for peaceful, civilian purposes. While agreeing that Tehran would be “right” in developing the capability to produce fuel for nuclear power reactors, Goss said the CIA was concerned about the “dual-use nature” of much of Iran’s nuclear technology.

“We do not have transparency,” he said.

One factor that complicates intelligence efforts on Iran’s nuclear program is the “advantage of ambiguity,” said Carol Rodley, principal deputy assistant secretary of state for intelligence and research.

“The Iranians don’t necessarily have to have a successful nuclear program in order to have the deterrent value. They merely have to convince us, others and their neighbors that they do. This is a lesson that hasn’t been lost on them, and it merely complicates both the collection and the analysis on this issue,” she said.

The Defense Intelligence Agency has also determined that Iran is likely to have the “technical capability” to develop an ICBM by 2015, Jacoby said in his prepared testimony, adding that “it is not clear” whether Tehran has decided to do so. Iran is also likely to continue efforts to improve its short-range ballistic missile arsenal, and is expected to “develop or import” land-attack cruise missiles, he said.

North Korea has probably progressed beyond a 2002 CIA assessment that it possessed enough plutonium to produce one or two nuclear weapons, Goss told lawmakers. “It has increased since then,” he said of Pyongyang’s weapons-production capability.

The CIA also believes that North Korea is continuing to seek a uranium enrichment capability drawing on assistance provided by top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, Goss said. 

Last week, Pyongyang announced publicly that it possessed nuclear weapons and that it would no longer participate in multilateral talks seeking to resolve the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula. Such talks, known as the six-party talks, involve China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea and the United States.

In his prepared testimony, Jacoby said that while North Korean leader Kim Jong Il may agree at some point to a partial removal of his nuclear weapons arsenal and program, “we judge Kim is not likely to surrender all of his nuclear weapons capabilities.” Both Goss and Jacoby also suggested the possibility that Pyongyang might seek to sell its nuclear weapons or materials abroad for hard currency.

The officials also said that North Korea could begin flight-testing its Taepodong 2 ICBM, which is believed to be capable of reaching targets with a nuclear weapon-sized payload. Jacoby also said in his prepared remarks that Pyongyang is continuing efforts to develop new short-range and intermediate-range ballistic missiles.

North Korea is also believed to have active programs to develop biological and chemical weapons, Goss said, adding that Pyongyang “probably” has chemical weapons available for use, and “possibly” biological weapons.

There is a continued “significant threat” that terrorists could seek to destabilize Pakistan through the assassination of President Gen. Pervez Musharraf and other high-level officials, according to Jacoby. Were Musharraf to be assassinated, extremist Islamic politicians could gain greater influence, including over Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, according to the officials (see GSN, Jan. 21).

During her Senate confirmation hearings last month, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said plans were in place to address the possible capture of Pakistani nuclear weapons by Islamic extremists.

During yesterday’s hearing, Goss briefly addressed another key U.S. proliferation concern regarding Pakistan — the Khan network, which was used to transfer nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea. Some have claimed that the investigation into the network, which was revealed through Khan’s confession, has been hampered due to Pakistan’s refusal to allow direct access to the scientist (see GSN, Feb. 15). 

In response to questions from lawmakers, Goss praised Pakistan’s cooperation with the U.S. investigation of the network, but declined to provide detail in an open committee hearing.

“There is an understanding that A.Q. Khan enjoyed a certain amount of celebrity status in his country because he was the man who brought them the bomb, which was very critical to that culture and their national pride, and so forth,” Goss said.

“It has been a difficult prospect, and understanding the problem they are having to deal with is useful in negotiating our interests, which are to get all the information possible. I think that those discussions are understood, and appropriate steps by the right people are being taken place,” he added.

The U.S. investigation into the network is continuing, Goss said.

“We have found that from a variety of sources following the leads of what we’ve known already that we’ve uncovered many new things, and we have found that in covering those things that we have not got to the end of the trail. Getting to the end of that trail is extremely important for us,” he said.

Another concern is that Pakistan and its regional rival India may both develop “boosted” nuclear weapons with increased yields, according to Jacoby.

Goss told the Senate intelligence panel that China’s military modernization efforts “could tilt the balance of power in the Taiwan strait” and could jeopardize U.S. troops in the region. Such modernization efforts include efforts to improve both the capabilities and survivability of China’s ballistic missile forces, officials said.

A Taiwanese push for independence could result in China responding with “varying levels of force,” Goss said. In his prepared testimony, though, Jacoby said that Beijing was believed more likely to use economic and diplomatic pressures to ward off Taiwan’s separation, as least through the 2008 Olympics.

In addition to the threats posed by several countries of concerns, the senior intelligence officials during yesterday’s Senate hearing also stressed the continued danger posed by al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups, including their interests in obtaining weapons of mass destruction.

“We are … extremely concerned with a growing body of sensitive reporting that continues to show al-Qaeda’s clear intention to obtain and to ultimately use some form of chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear material in its attacks against the United States. We still assess that a mass-casualty attack using relatively low-tech methods will be their most likely approach,” FBI Director Robert Mueller said. 

Terrorists are believed to be more likely to use industrial chemical or biological agents, rather than nuclear or radiological weapons, “because they are easier to employ” in attacks, Jacoby said in his prepared remarks. Such attacks would be intended to “cause casualties and attack the psyche of the targeted populations.”

While noting the risk of possible WMD attacks by terrorists, Deputy Homeland Security Secretary Adm. James Loy said “we are most likely to be attacked with a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device, because that’s the weapon of choice around the world.”

While “the most serious” terrorist threat to the United States is posed by al-Qaeda operatives abroad, there are also concerns that other terrorists groups with a presence in the United States, or domestic Islamic militants, may assist a future attack, Mueller said. Such groups include Hamas, Palestine Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah, he said.

Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, may choose to conduct retaliatory attacks against the United States in the event of U.S. military action against Tehran, Goss said.

“I would certainly recommend that any policy-maker considering that take that calculation,” he said.

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