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NATO Simulates a Nuclear Terrorist Attack By David Francis WASHINGTON — On the last day of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly meeting in Slovenia, about 150 lawmakers from alliance nations today discussed a hypothetical nuclear terror scenario intended to spur them to act to prevent such an attack (see GSN, May 25). Sponsored by a joint project of nongovernmental organizations called Strengthening the Global Partnership — led by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Nuclear Threat Initiative — the meeting addressed a simulated a nuclear weapon attack by terrorists in Brussels, causing 40,000 deaths and 300,000 injuries, the Associated Press reported. The session was an abbreviated version of a longer exercise, called “Black Dawn,” which was conducted in Brussels last year (see GSN, May 4, 2004). The exercise depicts the explosion in Brussels of a weapon containing highly enriched uranium stolen from a civilian nuclear reactor. The blast in the scenario destroys all structures within 350 meters, damages buildings more than 1.5 kilometers away and causes problems with electrical systems at a distance of up to 25 kilometers. Wind blows radiation over a 20-kilometer area, and water, sewage and other public infrastructure damage would affect all of Europe, according to the simulation. Financial markets and commerce across the globe would also slow as a result of the attack. “This is a plausible threat,” said Charles Ferguson, a nuclear terrorism expert from the Council of Foreign Relations and a panelist in today’s discussion. He said the hypothetical attack shows the need to dedicate resources to stopping a similar attack. “We need to pay attention to prevention,” Ferguson told Global Security Newswire. “Consequence management is not going to do much for us if there were an actual nuclear detonation, so we need to be thinking now what we need to be doing to prevent this from ever occurring.” While Ferguson acknowledged that it would be difficult for terrorists to obtain highly enriched uranium, he said organizations like al-Qaeda should not be underestimated. He said the group is capable of recruiting people who have the technical expertise to build a bomb if the proper materials are secured. “Look at Sept. 11: A majority of those terrorists were well educated,” Ferguson said. “And so we’re talking about a terrorist group that has the capability of going out and recruiting technically talented people. And the hardest thing for them to do is getting their hands on HEU, and that’s what we need to prevent.” [EDITOR’S NOTE: The Nuclear Threat Initiative is the sole sponsor of Global Security Newswire, which is published independently by the National Journal Group.]
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