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WMD Experts Call for Greater Nonproliferation Efforts, Warn of Possible Attack By David Francis WASHINGTON — Weapons of mass destruction experts are calling for greater international efforts to prevent weapons proliferation, according to a survey released today by U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar (R-Ind.). A majority of the experts said funding for nonproliferation efforts needs to be increased by half, with a plurality believing these efforts need to be concentrated in Russia (see GSN, June 3). Experts are more divided on the likelihood of a WMD attack happening in the next decade, but agree a strike would probably involve a biological, chemical or radiological weapon instead of a nuclear bomb. Lugar, who with former Senator Sam Nunn initiated U.S. cooperative threat reduction programs to secure former Soviet weapons of mass destruction in the early 1990s, received completed surveys from 85 nonproliferation and national security experts. Lugar said the survey results indicate that political leaders need to be more vigilant in securing weapons to ensure they do not end up in terrorists’ hands. “As part of the global war against terrorism, the United States and its allies must establish a worldwide system of accountability for nuclear, biological and chemical weapons,” Lugar wrote in an introduction to the survey. “In such a system, every nation that has weapons and materials of mass destruction must account for what it has, safely secure what it has, and demonstrate that no other nation or cell will be allowed access. If a nation lacks the means to do this, the international community must provide financial and technical assistance.” Governments and nonproliferation organizations must work to secure Russian weapon stockpiles and dismantle existing weapons, Lugar added (see related GSN story, today). The survey also indicates wide agreement on how many nations would become nuclear powers in coming years. More than 89 percent of respondents said they believed one or two countries would gain nuclear weapons in the next five years. Of the respondents, only four said more than three nuclear powers would emerge, while five said no additional countries would acquire nuclear weapons. When asked if a nuclear attack would occur in the next five years, 26 experts said the risk was greater than 20 percent, while nine believed the risk to be at least 50 percent. Six experts said there was little to no chance of a nuclear attack, while 32 said the chances are less than 5 percent. Looking at a 10-year time period, the respondents were less optimistic. Only one expert said the risk was nonexistent, while four experts put the chances at 100 percent. Forty-nine experts put the risk between 10 and 50 percent. The majority of experts believe the risk of a biological attack in the next five years to be between 10 and 30 percent, with three seeing no risk and three believing the risk to be above 75 percent. For a 10-year period, 49 experts said the risk of attack was at least 20 percent and 32 said the risk was greater than 40 percent. Three respondents see the risk as less than 4 percent over 10 years, while four put the risk at greater than 97 percent. Similarly, the majority of respondents put the risk of a chemical attack in the next five years between 10 and 30 percent. However, experts were evenly split over a 10-year period. Three experts said the risk was nonexistent, while three said a chemical attack was inevitable. Fourteen experts said they saw less than a 5 percent chance of a chemical strike, while an equal number saw the risk at greater than 60 percent. The survey found that experts believe a radiological “dirty bomb” attack is most likely. Sixty-eight experts said the chances of such an attack were at least 10 percent in the next five years. When the timeline was extended to 10 years, nearly half of the experts surveyed put the risk at greater than 50 percent. Experts were also asked whether a government or terrorist organization would likely be responsible for a WMD attack in the next 10 years. Nearly 80 percent favored terrorists, with more than three-fourths of experts believing the weapon would be acquired on the black market. The respondents were more evenly split on whether terrorists would acquire a completed weapon or assemble one with weapon-grade materials. Fifty-five percent of experts believe terrorists would create their own bomb after acquiring the proper materials, while the balance said a completed weapon would be obtained.
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