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EU Diplomats Pessimistic on Iran Nuclear Negotiations After Hard-Liner Presidential Victory
Some British, French and German diplomats are pessimistic about chances for a deal on Iran’s nuclear program as hard-line President-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad prepares to take office, the Financial Times reported today (see GSN, June 29). The European powers plan to put forth proposals to Tehran by early August that include nuclear fuel guarantees, technical assistance similar to the 1994 Agreed Framework between North Korea and the United States, and encouragement of regional contacts to address Tehran’s security concerns, the Times reported. Iran has, however, rejected similar offers in the past. “It is not exactly as if these will be completely new proposals, but they will be much more detailed and global,” said a French diplomat. At the same time, Washington may have extended itself as far as it intends to in supporting the diplomatic effort. Following last week’s election in Iran, “It may now be more difficult for the Europeans to convince the Americans to go further in helping out,” said one EU official. If Iran rejects the EU proposals and resumes sensitive nuclear activity, the European Union plans to back measures critical of the move at the International Atomic Energy Agency and, ultimately, at the U.N. Security Council, officials said. “The first step will have to be the IAEA,” said a European diplomat. “The basis for initial discussion in both the IAEA board and also the U.N. Security Council, if it gets there, will inevitably be the Paris agreement” (Daniel Dombey, Financial Times, June 30). Meanwhile, departing IAEA Deputy Director General Pierre Goldschmidt said yesterday that Washington and Moscow should support the EU diplomatic effort, Reuters reported. The agency’s goal is to verify whether there are any more “undeclared” nuclear materials or activities in the country, but doing so is only possible with Iranian cooperation, Goldschmidt told Le Figaro. “We haven’t advanced much lately,” said Goldschmidt. “It is very important that the United States and Russia support the EU in its mediation efforts, so that the European offers are taken seriously by Tehran,” he said. Asked if Iran might have mobile nuclear sites undetectable by agency inspectors, Goldschmidt said, “I haven’t heard talk of this hypothesis in the framework of Iran. But it is not unthinkable that modular installations for uranium conversion exist. If such installations are concealed in military, oil, or even urban sites, detecting them is extremely difficult” (Reuters, June 29).
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