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Los Alamos Prepares Terrorism Models From Tuesday, July 5, 2005 issue.

Los Alamos Prepares Terrorism Models


Scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico are preparing elaborate computer models of potential terrorist attacks on the United States to help prepare strategies to counter and respond to such acts, the Washington Post reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 11, 2003).

“We’re trying to be the best terrorists we can be,” said James Smith, who was preparing a simulated smallpox release in Portland, Ore. “Sometimes we finish and we’re like, ‘We’re glad we’re not terrorists.’”

The Homeland Security Department has been looking to technology to strengthen its antiterrorism efforts, according to the Post. The Los Alamos work, initiated following the Sept. 11 attacks, has already led to security improvements at power plants and creation of biosensors used in large metropolitan areas that could detect the release of a biological agent.

Smith concluded in his work on smallpox that a combination of targeted vaccinations and quarantine would be nearly as effective during an outbreak as large-scale inoculations.

Each computer simulation runs 100 times faster than real time. Modelers make changes in the responses in hopes of improving planning for an actual attack.

“It’s like the movie ‘Groundhog Day.’ You reach in and say what I did yesterday didn’t work so well and let’s see how something else works,” said Virginia Tech researcher Stephen Eubank, who worked with Smith on the smallpox model.

While supporters say the project is helping secure the nation, critics question the cost — up to tens of millions of dollars per simulation — and whether the effort would prove useful during an incident. 

Laboratory personnel acknowledge the importance of making sure that terrorists never get their hands on the simulations, the Post reported.

“It would be a terrorist recipe for doing something terrible,” Smith said (Ariana Eunjung Cha, Washington Post, July 4).


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