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Experts Offer Mixed Assessment of India, Pakistan Nuclear Confidence-Building Agreement By David Francis WASHINGTON — Nuclear weapons experts this week praised a recent deal between India and Pakistan that requires advance notification of ballistic missile tests and enhancements to their hot line system connecting officials from both countries. However, one expert warned that negotiations to stop ballistic missile development are needed to make real progress in curbing Indian and Pakistani nuclear ambitions (see GSN, Aug. 8). “The missile notification agreement is a mild step forward, but it does not address the fundamental problem which neither India or Pakistan or the United States is confronting, which is that both countries are enhancing their ballistic missiles and, in Pakistan’s case, cruise missiles,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. “The real danger … is the two countries are going to expand their missile capabilities and expand with nuclear weapons.” Kimball pointed to relations between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War to illustrate that simply establishing a hot line does not necessarily lead to a decrease in hostilities or weapons proliferation. Kimball said that the U.S.-Soviet hot line, created after the Cuban Missile Crisis, did not lead to weapon destruction or alleviate Cold War tensions. “What really would reduce the threat is negotiations about limiting the ballistic missile capabilities on each side,” Kimball said. “But at present, that’s not on the table and it’s not something the United States is pressuring either side to consider.” Michael Krepon, president emeritus of the Henry L. Stimson Center, was more generous in his praise of the agreement. “Anytime these countries agree to do something positive, it’s newsworthy,” he said. “This is good news.” The agreement calls for creation of a new hot line between India and Pakistan’s foreign ministries, and for improvements to an existing military hot line. The enhancements are especially important so that moves by one country are not misinterpreted by the other, Krepon said. The new hot line might be connected through satellites and allow for the exchange of text and maps, he said. “We’ve got two countries that are producing nuclear weapons and growing their arsenals. They haven’t gotten along very well with each other. They have serious crises,” Krepon said. “When they have these crises, they move their nuclear forces around. When countries that are new to this business have crises … there’s always a danger of misreading with the other side’s doing.” Krepon said the effectiveness of the new measures will only be known once India and Pakistan formally accept the text of the agreement. He speculated that a formal adoption could occur at a meeting of world leaders next month at the United Nations in New York. Despite the joint statement, Pakistan today successfully tested the nuclear-capable Hatf 7 Babur cruise missile without giving warning to India, Agence France-Presse reported today. The Arms Control Association’s Kimball said that the test did not violate the agreement because the test involved a cruise missile instead of a ballistic missile. However, because the Hatf 7 is capable of delivering a nuclear payload, Kimball said the test clearly ran counter to the spirit of the agreement. A Pakistani military statement quoted President Gen. Pervez Musharraf as calling the test a “major milestone.” Pakistan has “joined a select group of countries which have the capability to design and develop cruise missiles,” according to the statement. The military said the missile is capable of being launched from ships, planes and submarines and can avoid radar detection and hit targets “with pinpoint accuracy.” “It is a gift of the scientists on the birthday of President Musharraf and the Independence Day,” Information Minister Sheikh Rashid was quoted as saying. Musharraf celebrates his 62nd birthday today and Pakistan celebrates 58 years of independence from the United Kingdom on Sunday.
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