IAEA Reports Increase in Nuclear Incidents

By David Francis
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The number of illicit trafficking and other unauthorized activities involving nuclear and radioactive materials in 2004 increased significantly compared to prior years, according to a report released yesterday by the International Atomic Energy Agency (see GSN, June 16). 

Countries reported 121 incidents to the agency, according to the Illicit Trafficking Database report covering the theft of nuclear and radioactive materials from 1993 to 2004. Approximately 77 incidents were reported in 2003, the report states, and approximately 57 were reported in 2002.

The agency attributed the rise in reported trafficking, theft and other incidents to better reporting by the 81 countries involved. The increase in 2004 is the first since 2000. The agency said, however, that since 1993 incidents have been trending downward.

“Improved reporting may in part account for it,” the report says of last year’s increase. 

There has been only one reported incident involving trafficking of weapon-grade material since 2003, according to the report. An individual was caught attempting to smuggle 170 kilograms of highly enriched uranium across the border of the former Soviet republic Georgia.

While 170 kilograms is not enough nuclear material for a weapon, the incident illustrates the vulnerabilities of nuclear materials, said Anthony Wier, a research associate at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University.  

“The theft and potential smuggling of nuclear material … that can be used in a nuclear weapon isn’t a hypothetical risk,” he told Global Security Newswire..

Terrorists “don’t steal enough for a bomb in one fell swoop,” Wier said, adding that recent U.S. Homeland Security Department emergency planning scenarios involved terrorists gathering nuclear material for a weapon from different sources.

The U.N. nuclear watchdog noted the attempted trafficking of the 170 kilograms in its 2004 annual report. However, this is the first mention of an incident involving such a large amount of highly enriched uranium in a trafficking report Wier said. 

Since 1993, the agency has tracked 196 incidents including plutonium, uranium, and thorium.   Only 18 of the incidents involved highly enriched uranium or plutonium, and just a few of these involved kilogram quantities of weapon-usable materials. However, the agency warned that small quantities of weapon-usable materials seized were likely samples of larger supplies that may not be secure.

Two hundred and twenty incidents of theft of low-grade nuclear materials in the form of natural and depleted uranium, reactor fuel pellets and thorium were reported between 1993 and 2004. The agency said these incidents indicate gaps in nuclear material security.

“The majority of confirmed incidents with nuclear materials recorded during 1993 to 2004 involved criminal activity, such as theft, illegal possession, illegal transfer or transaction,” the agency said in a release accompanying the report. “Some of these incidents indicate that there is a perceived demand for such materials on the ‘black market.’ Where information on motives is available, it indicates that profit seeking is the principal motive behind such events.”

Finally, the agency reported 424 incidents from 1993 to 2004 of radioactive sources that could be used by terrorists.   “In the hands of terrorists or other criminals, some radioactive sources could be used for malicious purposes, for example in a radiological dispersal device or ‘dirty bomb,’” the report says. 

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