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Iran Several Years From Nuke, German Intelligence Says
Iran remains at least three or four years away from acquiring a nuclear weapon, according to Germany’s foreign intelligence agency (see GSN, Jan. 19). The estimate is consistent with a report released last week by the Institute for Science and International Security, according to Reuters. International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei has said Iran could build a weapon in a short period once it acquires nuclear fuel. “If they have the nuclear material and they have a parallel weaponization program along the way, they are really not very far — a few months — from a weapon,” he told Newsweek (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, Jan. 19). Meanwhile, a dissident group has accused Iran of planning a nuclear weapons test before the Iranian New Year on March 20, United Press International reported yesterday. The Foundation for Democracy also cited sources in Iran as saying that Shahab 3 missile units have been ordered to relocate mobile launchers every 24 hours in preparation for a possible air strike by Israel or the United States. Prior to the new orders, issued this week, the units were moved on a weekly basis, according to the organization (United Press International, Jan. 19). Russia’s atomic energy agency chief said today that Iran is prepared to discuss Moscow’s compromise proposal that it conduct uranium enrichment on Iran’s behalf, the Associated Press reported. Tehran “considers our proposal extremely interesting and is prepared for detailed discussions,” said Sergei Kiriyenko (Jim Heintz, Associated Press/Washington Post, Jan. 20). U.S. and European Union officials said yesterday that they were working to avoid provoking anti-Western sentiment in the Iranian public, the New York Times reported. The officials said sanctions would not be implemented any time soon, and that an immediate oil embargo or other economic penalties had also been ruled out. “A heavy-handed sanctions approach is going to hurt an awful lot of Iranians that we don’t want to alienate,” said a State Department official. “We’re going to have to be more surgical.” Western diplomats said alternatives include travel bans, a freeze of government officials’ assets or punishing entities suspected of assisting Iran’s nuclear program. One Bush administration official said a ban on Iran’s participation in the soccer World Cup was not being considered. However, Senator Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) announced that he would introduce a resolution calling for sanctions. “We have wasted valuable time, diverted resources and ignored this problem at our peril,” Bayh said. “No one wants to forestall the need to use military force more than I do, but if we are to do so, we must act now.” Andy Fisher, a spokesman for Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), said the panel only wanted to look at sanctions if it was clear that diplomacy would fail. Fisher added that if the time for sanctions came, the United States ought to avoid repeating past mistakes. He cited a 1990s ban on Iraqi oil exports that caused suffering in the population but yielded black-market profits for the regime of former President Saddam Hussein. “The focus on smart sanctions makes sense because they work the best,” said Patrick Clawson, deputy director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Big economic sanctions would not only be difficult to get, but Iran has vast foreign reserves from its oil revenues, so they can ride out what gets thrown at them.” Clawson added that Iranian leaders were sensitive about diplomatic isolation, making travel bans and asset freezes good options (Steven Weisman, New York Times, Jan. 20). Iran, meanwhile, is transferring its financial assets in order to protect them from possible sanctions, Reuters reported today. “We transfer foreign reserves to wherever we see as expedient. … We have started transferring,” said Iranian central bank governor Ebrahim Sheibani. The London-based Asharq al-Awsat reported yesterday that Iran’s Supreme National Security Council had ordered foreign holdings transferred to Asia (Parinoosh Arami, Reuters/Yahoo!News, Jan. 20). Iran warned yesterday that sanctions would result in a world oil crisis, Agence France-Presse reported. “In case of sanctions, other countries will suffer as well as Iran,” said Iranian Oil Minister Davoud Danesh-Jafari. “One of the consequences will be the unleashing of a crisis in the oil sector and particularly a price hike” (Agence France-Presse I/IranMania.com, Jan. 19). Elsewhere, U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan called on Iran to halt its sensitive nuclear research, AFP reported. “I think they (Iranians) should not escalate, they should not press ahead with their nuclear fuel research. We need time to build confidence and trust so that these negotiations will take place in an atmosphere which is appropriate,” Annan said (Agence France-Presse II/IranMania.com, Jan. 19). Russia called for a cautious approach to dealing with Iran, AP reported. “The most important thing is not to focus on aspects that cause sensations, such as when the issue reaches the United Nations, when the Security Council makes a decision,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said yesterday after meeting with his French counterpart, Philippe Douste-Blazy. Douste-Blazy said international efforts on Iran should display “firmness, unity and speed” (Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press/Jerusalem Post, Jan. 20). Syria yesterday expressed support for Iran’s nuclear program, AP reported. “We support Iran regarding its right to peaceful nuclear technology,” President Bashar Assad said at a news conference with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. “It is the right of Iran and any other state to own nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Countries that object to that have not provided a convincing or logical reason” (Albert Aji, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Jan. 19). U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney said yesterday that the U.S. invasion of Iraq was not a precedent for military action against Iran over its nuclear program, AFP reported. “It would be a mistake to go back and try to predict what might or might not happen, based on what happened in some other country in the past,” Cheney told Fox News. “It is a problem for the world if the Iranians have nuclear weapons, especially with a government headed up by the kind of individual that’s there today,” he said. “We are working aggressively to avoid having that situation arise.” Cheney also referred to Ahmadinejad as “a pretty strange duck” (Agence France-Presse III/IranMania.com, Jan. 19).
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