North Korean Nuclear Explosion Small, Experts Say

The North Korean nuclear explosion announced yesterday appears to have been of low strength, indicating it was a failure or limited success, the New York Times reported (see GSN, Oct. 6).

Other nations’ first nuclear detonations have historically been in the range of 10 to 60 kilotons.  The North Korean test appears to have been less than one kiloton in strength, according to U.S. analysts.

Sources said Pyongyang had sought a four-kiloton explosion, according to a senior Bush administration official.

“As first tests go, this is smaller and less successful than those of the other nuclear powers,” said Philip Coyle, former nuclear testing director at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California.

“If it turns out to be a kiloton or less, that would suggest that they hoped for more than that and didn’t get it,” he added.

Verifying that North Korea actually detonated a nuclear weapon is expected to take several days, an intelligence official told the Times.  While no radiation has been detected leaking from the underground blast site, experts said it is unlikely that the test was a fake involving massive amounts of conventional explosives.

“It’s difficult to fake it when you know people are looking down on you,” said Paul Richards, a seismologist for Columbia University.  “The execution of a chemical explosion would be hard to hide” (Broad/Mazzetti, New York Times I, Oct. 10).

Some U.S. officials expressed more doubts, the Washington Times reported.

“There was a seismic event that registered about 4 on the Richter scale, but it still isn’t clear it was a nuclear test.  You can get that kind of seismic reading from high explosives,” said one official.

“It appears there was more fizz than pop,” the official added (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, Oct. 10).

The explosion is believed to have occurred at 11:36 a.m. Monday in Korea, 10:36 p.m. Sunday in Washington, the Times reported.

Officials in Pyongyang notified China minutes before the test was to take place.  China alerted the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, which in turn sent word to the White House (David Sanger, New York Times II, Oct. 9).

Pyongyang quickly released a statement announcing the test.

“The field of scientific research in the D.P.R.K. successfully conducted an underground nuclear test under secure conditions on Oct. 9, 2006, at a stirring time when all the people of the country are making a great leap forward in the building of a great, prosperous, powerful socialist nation,” the announcement states (Associated Press I/Washington Post, Oct. 10).

South Korea said today it believed the announcement to be valid, but that confirming the success or failure of the test would take two weeks, Agence France-Presse reported.

“The government believes North Korea actually conducted a nuclear test,” said Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok.

Seoul “believes the reason North Korea officially announced (its nuclear test) was to secure the status of a de facto nuclear state,” Lee said, according to the Yonhap News Agency.  South Korea is not yet willing to make that concession, he said (Agence France-Presse I, Oct. 10).

South Korea has “detected no signs of preparations for an additional nuclear test at suspected sites,” said Defense Minister Yoon Kwang-ung.  However, Pyongyang could still use a portions of its suspected 50 kilograms of weapon-grade plutonium for further testing, he said (Agence France-Presse II, Oct. 10).

“North Korea’s nuclear test is a grave threat to stability and peace in Northeast Asia, and it is an unpardonable provocative act,” Yoon said.

Other nations also lashed out, according to AFP.  The United States plans to push for tough sanctions against Pyongyang at the U.N. Security Council.  “We’re talking about really making it hurt,” said U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, Washington’s point man on the North Korean nuclear crisis (Simon Martin, Agence France-Presse III, Oct. 10).

A U.S. draft resolution circulated at the Security Council condemns the test and calls on North Korea to return to the six-party talks.  It seeks an arms embargo and economic and trade sanctions against Pyongyang, along with barring Pyongyang’s import of luxury items, the Washington Post reported. 

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton said the resolution would hinder North Korea’s ability to acquire or ship nuclear and missile technology.  If the resolution is approved, North Korea would have 30 days to meet the U.N. demands or face “such further action as may be needed.”

While France and the United Kingdom backed sanctions without actually endorsing the resolution, Japan offered suggestions that would increase the penalties included in the document.

Chinese Ambassador to the United Nations Wang Guangya said yesterday his country continues to favor diplomacy (Abramowitz/Lynch, Washington Post, Oct. 10).

He did, however, appear to open the door for possible sanctions.  A “firm, constructive, appropriate but prudent response” is needed from the Security Council, he said.

“I think there has to be some punitive actions but I also think these actions have to be appropriate,” Wang said (Associated Press II, Oct. 10).

Chinese officials warned against military strikes against North Korea, AP reported.  “Taking military action against North Korea would be unimaginable,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao.

Washington offered a different take on the question of force, the Times reported.

“We’re keeping the military option on the table, because North Korea needs to know that it’s there,” Bolton said.  Japan also said that “all possibilities” are being considered in Tokyo (Choe/O’Neil, New York Times, Oct. 10).

North Korea followed the test with aggressive rhetoric, AP reported.

“We hope the situation will be resolved before an unfortunate incident of us firing a nuclear missile comes,” one official told Yonhap.  “That depends on how the U.S. will act.”

The test was “an expression of our intention to face the United States across the negotiating table,” the official said.

U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Alexander Vershbow said the test undermined the chances for direct talks between Pyongyang and Washington.

Experts also do not believe that North Korea possesses a nuclear weapon that could be fitted on a missile (William Foreman, Associated Press III/Yahoo!News, Oct. 10).

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