North Korean Blast Remains in Question

The United States continues to gather information to determine whether North Korea’s reported nuclear test actually involved an atomic device, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Oct. 10).

The assumption now is that Pyongyang detonated a nuclear weapon, according to intelligence and Bush administration officials.  However, more environmental samples are needed before it can be concluded that it was not simply the blast of massive amounts of conventional explosives.

The U.S. military sent an aircraft around the Sea of Japan yesterday to monitor for nuclear radiation, two intelligence officials said.  They said it might take winds days to shift radiation to a location where it could be detected.

“Over time, whenever the prevailing winds blow out over the Gulf of Japan, it will be more likely that we get some detection,” one official said.

Defense Department spokesman Bryan Whitman said Washington would use seismic data and other information to determine the cause of the blast.

“There is a possibility that fallout is detectable, and then there’s a variety of other intelligence means to determine the veracity of the allegation of the tests that they conducted,” he said.

Intercepted communications and additional data are being reviewed, a Pentagon official told the Post (Linzer/Ricks, Washington Post, Oct. 11).

The apparent small size of the blast — possibly less than one kiloton — has sparked discussion that the test was a failure. 

“Either this was a deceit using a few hundred tons of chemical high explosives or it was a nuclear device that did not go as intended,” said Bob Peurifoy, a former weapons executive at the Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico.  “I won’t call it a dud — a few hundred tons of explosives is not a dud — but a fizzle.  And the designer has probably been shot by now” (Ian Hoffman, Inside Bay Area, Oct. 10).

There is a “remote possibility” that the United States will never know whether North Korea met its test objectives, said White House spokesman Tony Snow.  Washington has never gained a clear understanding of several 1998 Pakistani tests, nor has it confirmed that a 1979 flash in waters near Africa was a nuclear test, the Post reported.

The low yield of the explosion is believed to have been caused by poor design, U.S. officials said.  A higher yield would require simultaneous detonation of conventional explosives surrounding the weapon’s plutonium core, causing the radioactive material to compress and implode (Linzer/Ricks, Washington Post).

Pyongyang might also have used aging, contaminated plutonium, the New York Times reported.  Other explanations are also possible, said Philip Coyle, former weapons testing chief at the Pentagon.

“Maybe they were trying to be sophisticated, and trimmed back on the amount of fuel” in hopes of readying a small warhead for use on missiles, Coyle said.  “Maybe they wanted a Ferrari the first time out of the box, and got a Model T instead” (Sanger/Broad, New York Times, Oct. 11).

The small size of the explosion has led to concerns among U.S. intelligence officials that North Korea might detonate another device in order to improve the result or more conclusively illustrate its capabilities, the Post reported (Linzer/Ricks, Washington Post).

An earthquake this morning in northern Japan raised suspicions that Pyongyang had conducted another test, the Associated Press reported.  The event appears to be natural.

“I have not received information about any indications … that a [second] test has taken place,” said Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

The U.N. Security Council was scheduled to meet again today to consider the U.S. and Japanese push to sanction North Korea.  Penalties could include a partial trade embargo that covered weapons exports by Pyongyang and inspections of imports to ensure the Stalinist state received no material that could be used to produce weapons of mass destruction.

China has said it would support some penalties, but not to the level envisioned by Tokyo and Washington.

“We don’t have complete agreement on this yet, that’s hardly a news flash, but we’re making progress we’re I think at a point we can try and narrow some of the differences we do have,” U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton said yesterday.

Sanctions must be approved in a matter of days to prevent the Security Council from losing face in the standoff, diplomats said (Nick Wadhams, Associated Press I/ABC News, Oct. 11).

North Korea lashed out today against the threat of sanctions, AP reported.

“If the U.S. keeps pestering us and increases pressure, we will regard it as a declaration of war and will take a series of physical corresponding measures,” the country’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.  The country’s No. 2 leader, Kim Yong Nam, said it would conduct more nuclear tests if Washington did not drop its “hostile attitude.”

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said no attack is planned against North Korea.  “There is no intention to invade or attack them.  So they have that guarantee. … I don’t know what more they want,” she said.

She added, however, that moving forward with its nuclear program would earn North Korea “international condemnation and international sanctions unlike anything they have faced before” (Hans Greimel, Associated Press II/Yahoo!News, Oct. 11).

Japan today banned all imports from North Korea and barred its ships from Japanese ports, AP reported (Associated Press III/Los Angeles Times, Oct. 11).

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