U.N. Continues to Debate Penalties for North Korea

The U.N. Security Council yesterday continued to seek a set of sanctions acceptable to all members to punish North Korea for its reported nuclear test, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Oct. 11).

A U.S. plan circulated late Wednesday would freeze North Korean assets in other nations connected to its weapons and missile programs.  The proposal eliminates an earlier call to freeze nonweapons-related assets. 

Also removed is the proposal to have all states inspect cargo heading to or coming from North Korea to ensure that sanctions are being met.  Nations would instead conduct inspections “as necessary.”

Japan has also dropped its demand to keep North Korean ships out of all foreign ports and to prevent its aircraft from landing in any nation, AP reported.

The new draft maintains its reference to Chapter 7 of the U.N. charter, which includes military action among the possible measures approved for dealing with international threats.

China, which has backed limited sanctions, argues that penalties should be restricted to those allowed under Article 41 of the charter.  The article authorizes economic, diplomatic and travel sanctions but not military force.

Japan also hopes to set a travel ban on personnel involved in Pyongyang’s WMD programs.

“Areas of disagreement” persist on the Security Council, said U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton.  Washington hopes to see “a strong and swift response” this week, he said (Edith Lederer, Associated Press I/ABC News, Oct. 12).

“We think the fact that North Korea has conducted a nuclear test does amount to a clear threat to international peace and security and warrants action under Chapter 7 of the U.N. charter as well as a variety of strong measures,” Bolton said.  “There is not agreement on all of those points so we’re continuing to press ahead” (Nick Wadhams, Associated Press II, Oct. 11).

China today indicated seeming opposition to a travel ban and financial sanctions, instead favoring moves that would help return North Korea to the six-nation talks on its nuclear program, AP reported.

“Punishment should not be the purpose” of U.N. action, said Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao.

U.N. moves “should be conducive to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula … and the resumption of talks,” he said.  “It’s necessary to express clearly to North Korea … that the international community is opposed to this nuclear test” (Alexa Olesen, Associated Press III/Yahoo!News, Oct. 12).

U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan yesterday called for direct talks between Pyongyang and Washington and expressed concern over North Korea’s rhetoric since the test.

“I have always argued that we should talk to parties whose behavior we want to change, whose behavior we want to influence, and from that point of view I believe that … (the) U.S. and North Korea should talk,” he said.

“I would urge the North Korean authorities not to escalate the situation any further,” Annan said.  “We already have an extremely difficult situation” (Wadhams, AP).

Meanwhile, the international community continued to consider the test blast itself, and whether its apparent small size indicates failure or deception.  It has been reported as having a force of no more than one kiloton, far less than the first-generation U.S. bombs used against Japan at the end of World War II.

“If this was a nuclear explosion, it would be a case of a failed explosion,” said French Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie (Jamey Keaten, Associated Press IV/phillyBurbs.com, Oct. 12).

An Italian expert said studies of seismograms and other information led him to suspect the test was a non-nuclear bluff, the Corriere della Sera newspaper reported.

“The scientific data have certainly not confirmed to date that it was a nuclear explosion,” said Enzo Boschi, chairman of the National Geophysics and Volcanology Institute.

“Let us begin with the magnitude, meaning the size of the earthquake triggered by the underground explosion in North Korea, around four on the Richter scale,” he said.  “Translated into explosive power, that is equivalent to 1,000 tons, one kiloton of TNT.  … The Koreans’, if an atomic bomb it really was, was tiny indeed” (Franco Foresta Martin, Corriere della Sera/BBC Monitoring, Oct. 11).

Increasing questions about the success of the test could push North Korean leader Kim Jong Il to try another one, analysts told AP.

“The reaction could be exactly to carry out another explosion, to make sure it succeeds,” said Georges Le Guelte, a nuclear expert at the French Institute for International and Strategic Research (Keaten, AP).

Russian President Vladimir Putin called for an “appropriate” response to the test, and for continued diplomacy, AP reported.

“No more negotiations have been conducted with North Korea for a year,” he said.  “I don’t want to talk about the causes, but we must not break off the process of talks” (Associated Press V/NASDAQ.com, Oct. 11).

Pyongyang pledged yesterday to take “strong countermeasures” against tough sanctions planned by Japan, Reuters reported.  Japanese officials said Tokyo intends to ban all imports and ships from North Korea.

“We will take strong countermeasures,” said Song Il Ho, the North Korean official in charge of diplomatic normalization talks with Japan, according to Kyodo News.  “The specific contents will become clear if you keep watching.  We never speak empty words” (Jonathan Thatcher, Reuters/Yahoo!News, Oct. 12).

North Korea is not yet able to carry out a nuclear attack against Japan, but could obtain that capability in a period of years, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday.

“Generally speaking a considerable degree of technology is necessary to miniaturize an atomic bomb” for a missile,” said Japanese defense chief Fumio Kyuma.  “At this moment I have not received factual information that North Korea has technology that advanced to do so.”

Military analyst Tadasu Kumagai estimated it would take Pyongyang two to three years to shrink atomic weapons to the point where they could be carried by Nodong missiles (Kimiko de Freytas-Tamura, Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Oct. 11).

Another threat would be that cash-strapped North Korea would seek to sell bomb technology, AP reported.

There would be several drawbacks to such an effort, experts said.  North Korea has no more than 132 pounds of separated plutonium, said Alexandre Mansourov, a North Korea expert at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu.

“My feeling is that Kim Jong Il is not going to give away or sell something which he has in a very limited quantity,” he said.  “How much can he get for it on the illegal black market?  Much, much less than he could have gotten if he put it on the negotiation table” in six-party talks.

There is also the risk of getting caught.

“Everybody is watching closely, and if anything was found, it would be the end of the North Korean regime,” said Kim Choong-nam, a North Korea expert at the East-West Center in Honolulu (Joseph Coleman, Associated Press VI/Philadelphia Inquirer, Oct. 12).

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