North Korean Nuclear Problems Said Quickly Fixable

U.S. analysts believe that the technical problems that seemingly plagued the first North Korean nuclear test could be overcome in a matter of months, The Washington Times reported today (see GSN, Oct. 26).

While Pyongyang reportedly predicted a four-kiloton explosion, the actual blast was measured at less than one kiloton.  That led to widespread belief that the test had not gone off as expected.

“North Korea’s nuclear test was a partial success.  They will fix the problem, and maybe try again,” said David Albright, head of the Institute for Science and International Security.

There are a number of possible causes for the limited explosion, experts told the Times, including low-grade plutonium, detonator problems or imperfect timing.

“We can’t say what was the cause or what the device was expected to do,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association.

These problems do not require an extended period to overcome, the experts said.

North Korea “learned a lot from the test, even if it did not detonate fully,” Kimball said.

“This was a political test,” he added.  “Whether it performed exactly as designed or not, the world now knows North Korea has nuclear weapons”

A four-kiloton device could be placed on a North Korean Nodong missile, which could reach Japan and South Korea and “threaten American assets” in the region, Albright said (Anju Bawa, The Washington Times, Oct. 27).

There were questions after the test as to whether it had actually involved a nuclear device, given the low yield of the blast.  South Korea and the United States later said they had confirmed it as an atomic explosion.

Following its own analysis, Japan today largely concurred, according to the Associated Press.

“We reached the conclusion that the probability that North Korea conducted a nuclear test is extremely high,” said Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki.

He said, though, that Japanese aircraft have yet to detect radioactive material that Seoul and Washington used to confirm their conclusions.  Tokyo’s investigation continues, AP reported (Kana Inagaki, Associated Press, Oct. 27).

Meanwhile, South Korea expressed concern today that attempts to stop ships heading to or from North Korea could lead to armed conflict with the Stalinist state, Agence France-Presse reported.  Such inspections are authorized under the U.N. Security Council resolution that followed the nuclear test (see GSN, Oct. 16).

“The possibility of sparking an armed clash would be very high,” said Vice Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan.  “That’s why we don’t take part in PSI.”

The U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative seeks to intercept shipments of WMD material on the high seas.  Washington has been urging Seoul to become more than an observer to the effort (Agence France-Presse I/INQ7.net, Oct. 27).

South Korean intelligence chief Kim Seung-kyu yesterday became the third senior government official to offer his resignation in the wake of the nuclear test, AFP reported.

Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok and Defense Minister Yoon Kwang-ung are also preparing to leave their posts.

President Roh Moo-hyun “needs new faces to cope with the shocks from the nuclear test,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean studies.  “It would seem to be an irony for the country to carry out its obligations under the U.N.-imposed sanctions with the outgoing ministers” who are connected to South Korea’s program of reconciliation with the North, he said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Oct. 27).

Elsewhere, three U.S. Democratic senators are pushing for quick selection of a policy coordinator on North Korea, the Yonhap News Agency reported today.

The position was included in the fiscal 2007 defense authorization bill signed earlier this month by President George W. Bush.  The coordinator is to be appointed within 60 days, and to submit a report within 90 days on U.S. policy regarding North Korea.

Inclusion of the position indicates “our belief that the time has come for a fundamental review of U.S. policy towards North Korea,” Senators Harry Reid (D-Nev.), Carl Levin (D-Mich.), and Joseph Biden (D-Del.) stated in an Oct. 20 letter to Bush.

Former Defense Secretary William Perry served as policy coordinator during the Clinton administration, Yonhap reported. 

“We hope that you will choose to work in a similar fashion, by appointing, as soon as possible, a truly senior statesperson, someone in whom you have confidence, and who possesses the stature to build interagency and bipartisan consensus, to serve as the North Korea coordinator,” the senators said (Yonhap News Agency, Oct. 27).

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