Activity Detected at North Korean Test Site

Activity at a suspected North Korean nuclear test site could be a sign that Pyongyang is preparing to carry out its threat to detonate a nuclear weapon, the London Times reported today (see GSN, Oct. 4).

U.S. spy satellites have shown “some activity in the area — personnel, vehicles, materials, things of that nature,” a U.S. official said, warning that the images are not conclusive (Richard Beeston, The Times, Oct. 5).

Some U.S. government analysts said that a test could occur as soon as Sunday, the nine-year anniversary of the appointment of North Korean leader as head of the Korean Workers’ Party, the Washington Post reported.  Pyongyang might also be aiming for Monday, the day on which South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon is expected to be selected to become the next secretary general of the United Nations.

Other intelligence and administration officials said there was no clear indication for a testing timeline.

“In terms of how much time they need and how far along they are, we don’t know if it’s even realistic” for North Korea to quickly conduct a nuclear test, said one official.

A nuclear test would create topographical changes that would be detected by U.S. satellites.  Ground-based seismic sensors operated by the United States and the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization would also detect the test (Dafna Linzer, Washington Post, Oct. 5).

A U.S. plane with radiation-detection capabilities is believed to be heading toward North Korea from southern Japan, the Associated Press reported (Jae-Soon Chang, Associated Press I/Yahoo!News, Oct. 5).

A mouthpiece for North Korean propaganda said today that Pyongyang is not bluffing in its pledge to carry out the nuclear test, the Associated Press reported.

“The nuclear test statement was announced on the premise of action,” according to the Choson Sinbo newspaper.  “Carrying out a test is an inevitable conclusion … under a condition where (the country) declared possession of nuclear weapons in February last year” (see GSN, Feb. 10, 2005).

The newspaper said room exists for negotiations if the United States gives up its “hostile relations” with North Korea.

Choson Sinbo is not an official component of the North Korean media system, but is believed to carry the government’s message, AP reported.

The South Korean Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported that Kim has been out of the public eye for 20 days.  He is known to drop from sight ahead of provocations by his regime (Jae-Soon Chang, Associated Press II, Oct. 5).

The U.N. Security Council met yesterday to discuss the threat, but failed to come to consensus on a response, Agence France-Presse reported.  “At this state, there’s division,” said U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton.

An experts’ meeting was scheduled to follow the council session.

“We will find out in this experts’ meeting this afternoon what North Korea’s protectors on the council are going to do,” Bolton said, seemingly referring to China and Russia, which have resisted punishing Pyongyang for its nuclear and missile programs.

Chinese Ambassador Wang Guangya fired back, “We are all concerned about the North Korean announcement.  On this issue, everybody is unanimous. … No one is going to protect them” (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Oct. 4).

Bolton is pressing a three-stage “effective, preventive diplomacy” approach, the State Department said.

“We need to make it clear that the threat has to be withdrawn. Step one,” he said.  “Step two:  We need to move North Korea back into compliance with its commitment in September 2005 in the six-party talks to come back to the six-party talks, to rejoin the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty” (see GSN, Sept. 19, 2005).

The third step requires the Security Council to make clear to North Korea that conducting a nuclear test would lead to new sanctions and other measures.

“I fear that if we don’t have a strong response now to this clear signal from the North Koreans on what they intend to do that they will misread the council; they will misread a weak press statement or presidential statement as meaning that their protectors within the council have made it clear that the council cannot act effectively,” Bolton said (Judy Aita, State Department Washington File, Oct. 4).

Russia and South Korea said they were moving to prevent a North Korean nuclear test, AP reported.

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun has ordered that a “grave warning” be sent regarding the consequences of a test, according to the Yonhap News Agency.  His government is also to prepare a “contingency plan” for a worsening nuclear standoff.

Moscow is also attempting to wave off Pyongyang from the test.

“We must do everything so that that doesn’t happen,” said Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.  “We are working with the leadership of North Korea to stop steps that could negatively impact the situation” (AP I).

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