Nations Seek CW Treaty Relief

By Chris Schneidmiller
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The owners of the world’s major stocks of nerve and blister agents will go to the annual Chemical Weapons Convention conference next week seeking years of extra time to eliminate their arsenals (see GSN, Nov. 3).

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons has received requests for extensions of the final deadline from nearly all treaty states that are known to possess munitions banned under the pact.  The big names are Russia and the United States, each with tens of thousands of tons of chemical agent, but also India, Libya, South Korea and China and Japan.

Each presently has until April 29, 2007, the 10th anniversary of the treaty’s entry into force, to finish disposal.  The convention, though, allows for an extension of up to five years.

Delegates from treaty nations are expected to consider the requests when they gather Dec. 5 to 8 in The Hague for the 11th Conference of States Parties.

“[It is] unlikely that any of the requests will be rejected,” John Gilbert, a senior science fellow at the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, said by e-mail.  “All of the delayed CW destruction programs face fact-of-life delays.  Even though some states parties have not moved expeditiously — such as Russia — the programs cannot be accelerated enough to meet deadlines.”

States parties will also decide whether to approve visits by delegates from its Executive Council to disposal sites in those countries that requested extensions.  The annual visits would be aimed at verifying that work is progressing as required.

All the chemical weapons states have made progress on disarmament, according to Peter Kaiser, spokesman for the agency that monitors treaty compliance.  Some, however, are not expected to meet even the final allowed deadline of April, 29, 2012.  The latest U.S. schedule calls for work to be completed in 2023 (see GSN, Nov. 21).  Experts say that disposal of weapons in China and Russia also will stretch beyond the next five years and five months.

Various reasons are offered for the delays. 

Nations generally have found the work more complicated than anticipated when the process began, a U.S. official familiar with the issue told Global Security Newswire.  The Defense Department cited regulatory hurdles, safety and security requirements, and technological difficulties in building disposal facilities among the reasons for missing the 2012 deadline.

Two complications seem to cross boundaries, Gilbert said:  local political opposition to construction nearby of a disposal facility, and inability or unwillingness to meet the cost of designing, building and operating plants.

“There has also been a certain lack of priority given to getting rid of old weapons that no one’s going to use when nations are concerned about new weapons that they are going to use,” Alan Pearson, director of the center’s Biological and Chemical Weapons Control Program, said in a telephone interview.

Use of industrially produced chemical weapons dates to World War I, when battling militaries used chlorine, phosgene, mustard and other gases to incapacitate or kill each other.  The weapons have been repeatedly used in warfare and terrorism in the subsequent decades.  The most notable incident in recent years was the 1995 sarin attack on the Tokyo subway system that killed 12 people (see GSN, Sept. 18).

The Chemical Weapons Convention, which outlawed the development, possession and use of such weapons, was signed in 1993 and entered into force four years later.  Twenty-one percent of the known global stockpile of agents such as VX, mustard and sarin — 15 million kilograms — has been destroyed to date, according to OPCW figures.  More than 2.5 million munitions and bulk containers have been destroyed, and all chemical weapons production facilities among the 181 treaty members have been shut down.

A number of nations are suspected of maintaining offensive chemical weapons programs, including Iran, Israel, North Korea and Syria.

The only treaty nation expected to fully eliminate its chemical weapons material by next April is Albania, which is believed to possess just 16 tons of mustard agent.  U.S.-supported disposal could begin next month, the U.S. official said.

The United States has incinerated or chemically neutralized 37 percent of its nearly 28,000 metric tons of “Category 1” munitions — those that contain agents with little to no use outside weaponry.  All Category 3 weapons — unfilled munitions — have been destroyed, and there is no indication of U.S.-developed Category 2 weapons, which would contain less-dangerous materials.

Two U.S. sites have finished their work, disposal is under way at another five facilities and two have yet to be built.  Weapons neutralization plants at the Pueblo Chemical Depot in Colorado and the Blue Grass Army Depot in Kentucky are scheduled to eliminate the last of their munitions, respectively, in 2020 and 2023.

Russia has eliminated more than 6 percent of its stockpile of Category 1 chemical agent, the world’s largest at 40,000 metric tons, according to OPCW figures.  All other weapons have been destroyed.  Three of its seven intended facilities have been built, and one has completed its task.

Beijing and Tokyo are still collecting upwards of 400,000 weapons left in China by the retreating Japanese army at the end of World War II (see GSN, May 2).  The weapons are to be destroyed at a Japanese-built facility in China; there is no indication that any have been eliminated to date, Gilbert said.

While Washington, Moscow, Beijing and Tokyo are seeking the entire five-year extension, other states say they need less time.

India has eliminated nearly 70 percent of its Category 1 chemical weapons, plus all other munitions, and plans to finish disposal in April 2009.  Details of its arsenal are limited; Chinese defense researchers have indicated that the stockpile consists of 1,000 tons of chemical agent, mostly mustard, along with multiple delivery devices, according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative.

Libya is scheduled to finish off its estimated 23 tons of mustard agent by Dec. 31, 2010, and its Category 2 weapons a year later.  South Korea, which the organization refers to strictly only as “a state party,” has completed 85 percent of disposal and should be done by the end of 2008.

Delegates at the conference are not likely to worry this year about states missing the final 2012 deadline, Pearson said.  “That’s my sense, [that] they’re going to take it when it comes as opposed to take care of it now,” he said.

While the treaty allows for sanctions or other measures for countries that violate their obligations, Pearson said the effects of missing the 2012 deadline would largely depend on how far along weapons-possessing nations are at that point in their elimination efforts.

“If at the end of the day, if there’s been a significant reduction by 2012 … then probably the effects won’t be as great unless the states want to use it as a bargaining chip for other things,” he said.  “On the other hand, if the deadline is extended and there’s still not significant progress then I think you have another ballgame there.”

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