U.S. Boosts Planning for Attack on North Korea

The U.S. Defense Department is strengthening its nuclear forces in Asia as part of increased planning for a potential strike against North Korea, The Washington Times reported today (see GSN, Nov. 2).

Work began several months ago, but gained added momentum following North Korea’s test detonation of a nuclear weapon on Oct. 9.

“Various military options” are being considered to take out Pyongyang’s nuclear program, a Pentagon official said.  They include detailed plans for using commando raids or guided weapons such as the Tomahawk cruise missile to destroy the Yongbyon plutonium-reprocessing facility.  North Korea would need five to 10 years to replace the facility that provides weapons material, U.S. planners said.

“Other than nuclear strikes, which are considered excessive, there are several options now in place.  Planning has been accelerated,” the official said.

Another official said that nuclear weapons remain on the menu of deterrents.

“We will resort to whatever force levels we need to have, to defend [South Korea].  That nuclear deterrence is in place,” the official said.

The forces include bombs and air-launched missiles based in Guam, and nine nuclear missile submarines based in Washington state that are regularly sent to waters around Asia.

The planning does not mean that an attack is inevitable, but that the forces are available for use, according to the Times (Bill Gertz, The Washington Times, Nov. 3).

Some U.S. experts believe North Korea is capable of placing a nuclear warhead on medium-range missiles that could reach Japan, Reuters reported yesterday.

“We’ve assessed that North Korea can put a warhead on a Rodong,” said David Albright, head of the Institute for Science and International Security.

“What you’re trying to do is reduce the diameter to fit inside a re-entry vehicle.  You can do that with a crude nuclear weapons design,” he said.

GlobalSecurity.Org director John Pike said he has “never been able to understand why there would be any doubt about North Korea’s capacity to put a nuclear weapon on a medium-range ballistic missile.  They’ve had it for several years.”

The maximum range of the Rodong is 870 miles, placing all of South Korea and most of Japan within reach.  That could provide deterrent against a U.S. attack, experts told Reuters.

“Even if there’s only a 10-percent probability that they’ve produced a few warheads and put them on Rodong missiles, that could still be enough to deter the United States because the possible effect on Japan is catastrophic,” said Daniel Pinkston, a Korea expert at the Monterey Institute’s Center for Nonproliferation Studies (David Morgan, Reuters, Nov. 2).

Other U.S. experts questioned North Korea’s capability to fit a nuclear warhead on a missile, Agence France-Presse reported.

“I don’t see any evidence to suggest that North Korea has successfully designed a basic nuclear warhead, let alone one small enough and sturdy enough to fit on a missile,” said nonproliferation expert Joseph Cirincione, of the Center for American Progress.

Moving from testing a basic nuclear weapon to successfully placing it on a missile is a “huge leap,” he said.

“This could take several more tests and flight testing of a re-entry vehicle which they haven’t done,” Cirincione said.

“The assessment now is North Korea is not capable of arming a ballistic missile with a working nuclear warhead,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association.

“What is important for everyone to recognize is that if their program advances and there is more nuclear testing, more missile testing, it would become more likely that they will,” he said.

That makes it crucial to succeed in ending Pyongyang’s nuclear program through the six-nation talks, Kimball said (P. Parameswaran, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Nov. 2).

Lead South Korean nuclear negotiator Chun Young-woo said the six-party talks might resume next month.  Seoul is talking with Tokyo and Japan about scheduling informal meetings before the next round of negotiations, the Associated Press reported.

“How much substantial progress can be made once the talks resume is much more important at this point than how soon we open the talks,” he said today.  “It is important to thoroughly prepare ahead, to coordinate between related countries and to do our homework thoroughly” (Bo-Mi Lim, Associated Press I, Nov. 3).

The outcome of the talks “depend on the U.S. attitude,” said Kim Yong Nam, No. 2 leader in North Korea.

He said Pyongyang offered to return to the talks to allow Washington to save face rather than being seen as giving in to North Korea’s demands to discuss U.S. financial sanctions.

Chun said, though, “there is no way the U.S. can promise a solution” to its financial dispute with North Korea.

“I think North Korea has become aware of the reality and had decided to solve this issue at the six-party talks,” he said.  Pyongyang “has no more cards to play after the nuclear test,” Chun said (Bo-Mi Lim, Associated Press II/USA Today, Nov. 3).

Meanwhile, U.S. Undersecretaries of State Nicholas Burns and Robert Joseph are to meet with Chinese, Japanese, Russian and South Korean officials next week to discuss implementation of U.N. sanctions on North Korea, AP reported (Associated Press III/NASDAQ.com, Nov. 2).

Back to top
About Newswire  |  Contact National Journal  |  Re-Use Guidelines © Copyright 2008 by National Journal Group, Inc. The material in this section is produced independently for NTI by National Journal Group, Inc. Any reproduction or retransmission, in whole or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly prohibited without the consent of the National Journal Group, Inc. All rights reserved.