Blair Announces Plan to Replace British Missile Submarines, Reduce Warheads

British Prime Minister Tony Blair announced plans today to replace British nuclear missile submarines with newer versions that could allow London to reduce its fleet from four to three boats (see GSN, Dec. 1).

In a white paper released today, Blair also announced plans to cut the number of deployed British warheads by 20 percent, to fewer than 160 warheads, as the current submarines are retired.

The long-awaited decision is intended to lay out British goals for its nuclear deterrent as its current force of four Vanguard submarines is expected to reach retirement in less than 20 years.  Members of Blair’s Labor Party have criticized him for being too hawkish and have called for significant reductions to British nuclear forces.

Blair, however, said uncertainties about nuclear proliferation and terrorism require the United Kingdom to retain robust nuclear forces for years to come.

“The number of states with nuclear weapons continues to grow, and may grow further,” he wrote in a forward to the white paper.  “And we need to factor in the requirement to deter countries which might in the future seek to sponsor nuclear terrorism from their soil.”

“We must assume that the global struggle in which we are engaged today between moderation and extremism will continue for a generation or more,” he added.

Some critics of the plan have argued that the submarines’ life expectancy should allow more time to assess future British security needs, but the white paper argues that the time needed to design and deploy a new submarine requires a decision today.  The submarines are a British version of the U.S. Trident submarine.

“It will take around 17 years to design, manufacture and commission a replacement submarine,” the paper says.  The existing missiles on the submarines can have their life expectancies extended, the paper says, so there are no plans to replace them as yet (Greg Webb, GSN, Dec. 4).

The British Parliament is now expected to debate Blair’s plan over the next few months in advance of an expected formal vote in March, the London Guardian reported today.  Blair will be out of office by then, so the plan will lack his direct support, but members of the conservative Tory party are solidly behind it, according to the Guardian.

More than 50 lawmakers of Blair’s own party, however, have indicated that they favor scrapping the submarines altogether as they reach retirement age.

One critic of the Blair plan said it was too early, too expensive and misdirected.

“There’s absolutely no reason why we can’t take this decision next year or in five years’ time,” said former environment minister Michael Meacher (see GSN, Nov. 1, 2005).  “It will severely restrict much more needed conventional defense expenditure, it will undermine the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty worldwide and drain off a colossal sum of money from where it is most needed: dealing with the real threats we face from terrorism, climate change and long-term energy security” (Matthew Tempest, London Guardian, Dec. 4).

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