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U.S. Lawmaker Expresses Doubts on Iran Intelligence
The ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee said yesterday that U.S. intelligence on Iran is inadequate and might contain corrupted information that is being accepted as legitimate, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, April 4). “I remain skeptical — lots of unanswered questions,” Representative Jane Harman (D-Calif.) said at a Council of Foreign Relations event in Washington. Harman said she was among a group of lawmakers who received a briefing from U.S. intelligence agencies containing information shared with the U.N. Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency. “The conjecture that I have is that if I were Iran, and I wanted to put out disinformation, it might look a lot like what our government is claiming is information,” Harman said. “I can’t tell you that's true, but I can’t tell you it’s not true.” She did not give any details of what was said during the classified briefing. Harman added that she believes Iran is a threat, but added, “The issue is how capable are they and what are the real intentions of Iran’s leaders, and I think the jury is out on both of those.” “I want to be absolutely sure that we base decisions — especially tough decisions like what are the next steps with Iran, and I surely hope they are diplomatic because I think those are our best options — on pristine and pure intelligence or the closest we can get to that,” she added. Former CIA acting chief John McLaughlin, speaking at the same event, took issue with the phrase “pristine intelligence.” “It’s important, I think, to realize that intelligence isn't going to be pristine and pure,” he said. Intelligence often is not complete and policy decisions must go forward at some point, McLaughlin said. “We are getting a little caught in the idea that intelligence has the answer to everything,” he said (Associated Press I/New York Times, April 4). Meanwhile, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier called on the United States to include nuclear issues in planned bilateral talks with Iran on Iraq, Agence France-Presse reported. Steinmeier discussed Iran with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during a meeting yesterday in Washington. The German foreign minister also brought up Iran in a session with national security adviser Stephen Hadley. “Based on reports that there are apparently talks taking place arranged by the American ambassador in Baghdad with the Iranian leadership about the situation in Iraq, I advised that the topics should not be limited just to Iraq but expanded to include one of the most urgent problems confronting us all: the suspicion that Iran, the Iranian leadership, is pursuing secret atomic weapons programs,” Steinmeier said. Steinmeier noted that the United States was reluctant to breach the nuclear issue in the bilateral talks. “We are oversimplifying the situation if we say that there is European pressure on the United States, on the American administration — this is above all an internal American discussion. But at the moment, I cannot see any signs that they are prepared to take part in such discussions,” he said (Agence France-Presse I/JTW News, April 5). A U.S. official said that Washington believes diplomacy is “an effective means to an end” and that using force against Iran was “not under active consideration,” the Financial Times reported today. The former chief of U.S. Central Command, Gen. Anthony Zinni, said the United States would need 1 million troops to take Tehran. Use of special operations forces and Iranian militant exiles would also be difficult. “It would be like throwing eggs against a brick wall,” said Patrick Lang, a former Defense Intelligence Agency Middle East specialist. Lang added that Israel does not have the ability to strike effectively because of distance. He and former CIA official Larry Johnson said a “worthwhile air campaign” would require 1,000 sorties by cruise missiles and aircraft (Dinmore/Wetzel/ Sevastopulo, Financial Times, April 5). A top Iranian military official said Iran could defend itself from outside invaders, the Associated Press reported. The official made the claim as Iran tested a new medium range surface-to-sea missile said to be able to avoid radar. “'The missile command of the [Revolutionary] Guards’ naval force ... via positioning various types of surface-to-sea missiles, is able, while defending the coastlines and islands, to confront any extraterritorial invasion,” said Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi. The United States said Iran has made some progress with missile technology but it believed to be overstating its capability. “We know that the Iranians are always trying to improve their weapons system by both foreign and indigenous measures,” said Defense Department spokesman Bryan Whitman. “It’s possible that they are increasing their capability and making strides in radar-absorbing materials and technology.” However, “the Iranians have also been known to boast and exaggerate their statements about greater technical and tactical capabilities,” he said (Associated Press/New York Times, April 4). The White House said yesterday that testing of new military technology in Iran is proof on Tehran’s willingness to isolate itself internationally and pursue nuclear weapons, AFP reported. “Their aggressive military program and defiant rhetoric are further examples of how the regime is isolating itself and the Iranian people from the rest of the world,” said spokesman Scott McClellan. “It is also a reminder of why the international community is united in its concern about the regime’s possible development of nuclear weapons and why the international community is calling on Iran to comply with its international obligations or face further isolation.” “Last week the Security Council sent a very clear statement to the regime, and said, ‘Comply with your obligations, come clean,’” McClellan added. “You have 30 days to come clean, make a commitment to come clean and comply with your obligations, or we’re going to back at the Security Council consulting about next steps to take.” McClellan urged Iran “to suspend its uranium enrichment and enrichment-related activity and come back to the negotiations and act in good faith” (Agence France-Presse II/Yahoo!News, April 4). Chinese Ambassador to the United Nations Wang Guangya warned Iran that “noncooperation will lead to undesirable results,” United Press International reported yesterday. “I do hope that before the 30 days expire there will be activities at least being resumed which will lead to good results,” he said. When asked what would happen if this does not occur, he said, “We have words for the Iranians. We call on them to cooperate and we also warn about noncooperation.” “I think that they have to realize the political situations in the world and also to consider that noncooperation will lead to the undesirable results. We are smart people. They are also smart people.” Wang cautioned against imposing sanctions on Iran, saying, “if [Security Council] members are thinking of taking action ... on this issue, it will prove to be more counterproductive rather than productive because this region — I mean the Middle East region — has so many problems already. We don’t need to escalate the situation for the worse” (United Press International, April 4).
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