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Pentagon Fears China to Drop “No-First-Use” Policy
Chinese military officials are considering situations under which they would abandon the nation’s policy of refusing to be the first combatant to use nuclear weapons in a conflict, the U.S. Defense Department said in a report issued yesterday (see GSN, May 24). The 50-page report on China’s military status emphasizes upgrades to Beijing’s nuclear arsenal and the 790 short-range ballistic missiles deployed opposite Taiwan, the Washington Post reported. China is boosting its stockpile of mobile ICBMs. The DF31A and the JL-2 submarine-launched missile could be deployed next year with ranges enabling them to reach the United States, according to the annual report to Congress. While Beijing as recently as fall 2005 said it would adhere to the no-first-use policy, improvements to the nuclear arsenal have led to reconsideration. “We take them at their word that they adhere to the doctrine,” said Peter Rodman, U.S. assistant defense secretary for international security affairs. However, “as their capabilities change they may be thinking about options that they didn’t have before.” Changing the policy would be “very destabilizing” for the region, a U.S. defense official told the Post. Chinese military officials and academic strategists have commented that China might consider using nuclear weapons if faced with a major conventional assault on the country, the report states. Commentators there have also said a conventional attack on a nuclear site would essentially be a small atomic strike, and could lead to a nuclear response from Beijing, according to RAND Corp. expert Evan Medeiros. “The real issue is not ‘no first use.’ The real issue is: Under what conditions China will use nuclear weapons … how bad do things have to get for the threshold to be crossed,” he said. Other experts expressed less concern. “They are primarily interested in increasing conventional options in regional contingencies and vis-a-vis Taiwan,” said China expert Kurt Campbell of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. U.S. and Chinese officials are expected to soon begin talks on nuclear strategy. Jing Zhiyuan, China’s nuclear arsenal chief, is scheduled to visit the United States for the first time (Ann Scott Tyson, Washington Post, May 24). China yesterday reaffirmed its stance against exports of sensitive nuclear technology, Reuters reported. “Since China signed the [Nuclear] Nonproliferation Treaty in 1992 we have always adhered to our international obligations and promises,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao. Recent reports said Iran acquired uranium for its nuclear program from China in 1991 (see GSN, May 19). Liu made no specific comment on whether China might have sold uranium before becoming an NPT member state, saying Beijing “cannot accept those accusations by certain countries.” “China never sells sensitive uranium enrichment or nuclear processing equipment or technologies,” he said (Reuters/Yahoo!News, May 23).
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