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U.S. Willing to Join Iran Talks
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced today that the United States would join talks with Iran if Tehran suspends sensitive nuclear activities and permits more intrusive international inspections to resume, Reuters reported (see GSN, May 30). “To underscore our commitment to a diplomatic solution and to enhance prospects for success, as soon as Iran fully and verifiably suspends its enrichment and reprocessing activities, the United States will come to the table with our EU-3 colleagues and meet with Iran’s representatives,” she said. Rice added that the United States had backed “essential elements” of an incentives package for Iran to halt nuclear work being prepared by the European Union. A senior State Department official said China and Russia also support the EU offer but that details remain to be finalized by foreign ministers from the U.N. Security Council’s permanent members tomorrow in Vienna. “The negative choice is for the regime to maintain its current course, pursuing nuclear weapons in defiance of the international community and international obligations,” Rice said. “If the regime does so, it will incur only great costs” (Reuters I, May 31). U.S. President George W. Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday discussed the Iran nuclear issue by telephone, the Associated Press reported. “Both leaders spoke in favor of the further development of international efforts in the interests of resolving the Iranian nuclear problem,” the Kremlin said in a statement. Bush also contacted French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the White House announced. Meanwhile, European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana said Iran must prove its nuclear program is peaceful by accepting the pending incentives package and suspending all nuclear work. “If they reject it, it will be once again a clear sign they are looking ... to enter nuclear weapon-type of enrichment that for us will be very dangerous,” Solana said. He indicated that the package, if approved by the world powers tomorrow, would be offered to Iran before a June 21 EU-U.S. summit in Vienna. Solana indicated, however, that differences remain between Moscow and Washington. Diplomats familiar with a draft of the text told AP that the resolution calls for sanctions if Iran remains defiant but does not address an article of the U.N. Charter that could trigger military action. The proposal seeks further discussions among the permanent Security Council members on any additional moves against Tehran. Among the sanctions under discussion are a visa ban on Iranian officials, asset freezes, an arms embargo, and restrictions on exports of refined oil products to Iran. If Iran agrees to halt uranium enrichment, resume negotiations and allow intrusive inspections, discussion of its file at the Security Council would be suspended, and it would receive international assistance in building a nuclear energy program that relies on foreign supplies of enriched uranium, according to AP (George Jahn, Associated Press, May 31). Diplomats told Agence France-Presse today that Washington is willing to join nuclear talks with Iran if China and Russia support potential sanctions. One Western diplomat said the United States would only join multilateral talks “if Russia and China can agree on Thursday to key aspects of the package, including some specific future sanctions if Iran rejects it.” “It’s not a done deal yet, but the United States is definitely extending itself to try to get to ‘Yes,’” the diplomat said, adding that Nicholas Burns, undersecretary of state for political affairs, would represent Washington at any such talks (Michael Adler, Agence France-Presse I/Yahoo!News, May 31). Iran today reiterated that its nuclear program was irreversible, AFP reported. “The European nations negotiating Iran’s nuclear program should recognize the reality and irreversibility of Iran’s nuclear activity,” said the deputy head of the country’s Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Saeedi. “If the Europeans do not pay attention to Iran’s nuclear progress, they will have trouble in future,” he said (Agence France-Presse II/Middle East Times, May 31). International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said yesterday that Iran is not an imminent nuclear danger, Reuters reported. “Our assessment is that there is no immediate threat,” ElBaradei said. “We still have lots of time to investigate.” “You look around in the Middle East right now and it’s a total mess,” he said. “You cannot add oil to that fire.” ElBaradei said most of the Iranian leadership seems interested in a negotiated solution, and he warned that tough sanctions could force Tehran to retaliate. “We have learned some lessons from North Korea,” he said. “When you push a country into a corner, you are giving the driver’s seat to the hard-liners there” (Thom Akeman, Reuters II, May 30). U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John Warner (R-Va.) yesterday called for a NATO-led “ring of deterrence” surrounding Iran, AFP reported. An option for preventing Iran from pursuing a nuclear capability “would be to begin planning a strategy of deterrence, as a parallel and supportive effort to diplomacy,” Warner wrote in an op-ed article published by the International Herald Tribune. “In the worst-case scenario, where diplomacy fails and Iran proceeds defiantly with a nuclear weapons program, how would the world respond?” he wrote. “In preparing for such a scenario, we should reflect on the lessons of the Cold War, when deterrence succeeded, largely through the actions of NATO.” “The international community should begin devising the initial concept of a ‘ring of deterrence’ that would surround Iran and deter the use of actual force, as was done so successfully with the Soviet Union during the Cold War,” said Warner (Agence France-Presse III/Yahoo!News, May 30). Iran plans to begin taking bids for construction of two light-water nuclear reactors, AFP reported today. “Iran will announce international tender to build two light-water reactors in [the] near future. Foreign and domestic firms can participate in the tender,” Saeedi said, according to state media (Agence France-Presse IV/Interactive Investor, May 31). Tehran has been restructuring its military and testing a decentralized, Iraqi-style guerrilla defense against a possible invasion, the Washington Times reported today. More than 15,000 Iranian regulars participated in irregular warfare exercises in northwestern Iran in December, according to the official MENA news agency. A second exercise aimed at putting down insurgencies was conducted in the majority-Arab province of Khuzestan in September, according to Iranian press reports. “It’s probably a smart policy for the Iranian leadership to get this out in order to convince the U.S. military that they are ready for guerrilla resistance from the get-go,” said Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow in foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution. “They know they can’t repulse our air strikes — we can strike from a long distance making it hard to shoot us down — so the only thing they can do in that case is move assets to secret locations,” he said (Iason Athanasiadis, Washington Times I, May 31). Saudi Arabias’s ambassador to the United States warned yesterday that military action against Iranian nuclear installations would have “catastrophic” effects on the region, the Times reported. Prince Turki al-Faisal said his country supports a negotiated solution to the standoff. “We’re against any military conflict” over Iran’s nuclear program, he said. He said armed conflict would shock world oil markets and cause Iran to retaliate against U.S. allies and interests in the region and elsewhere (David Sands, Washington Times II, May 31).
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