U.S.-Indian Deal Could Spark South Asian Arms Race, Markey Says

By Jon Fox
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The proposed U.S.-Indian nuclear deal could catalyze an arms race between India and Pakistan and poses “one of the greatest threats” to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, Representative Ed Markey said yesterday (see GSN, June 21).

India now produces enough fissile material to make between six to 10 nuclear weapons a year while operating its civilian nuclear program, said Markey (D-Mass.), co-chairman of the congressional Bipartisan Task Force on Nonproliferation.

However, if the United States ensures a steady stream of nuclear fuel for India’s power reactors — one of the provisions of the deal — India could devote domestic fissile material production to its military program.

That means India could produce as many as 50 warheads a year, Markey said, citing a recent report by The Hindu, an Indian newspaper.

A former Indian intelligence official said Indian reactors operating outside the view of international inspectors could produce an additional 130 kilograms of weapon-grade plutonium annually, The Hindu reported.

Citing recent conversations with high-level Pakistani government officials, Markey said Islamabad would keep pace with any increased Indian weapons production.

“The Pakistanis are telling me they are not going to stand still and let the Indians gain an exponential advantage over them,” he said during a hearing of the House Homeland Security Prevention of Nuclear and Biological Attack Subcommittee. Both nations have developed and tested nuclear weapons, and neither has signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

One Bush administration official, however, said yesterday that India is unlikely to greatly increase its weapons production.

“We have some expectations that India will not be producing many, many weapons,” said Jack David, deputy assistant defense secretary for international security policy, speaking at the subcommittee hearing.

Critics of the deal have called for India to cease production of fissile material and open all nuclear facilities to full inspections. India has rejected notions of a fissile material cutoff, and under the proposed agreement military nuclear facilities would remain outside the scope of international inspectors.

Earlier in the day, Markey argued that the deal would place the United States in violation of a key restriction of the treaty, which requires states to not aid a nation in the construction of nuclear weapons.

“Are we going to allow the Bush administration to casually throw the Nonproliferation Treaty into the trash heap of history?” Markey asked at a press conference.

Opposing this deal is not “anti-India. It is anti-weapons of mass destruction,” he said. “With this deal the Bush administration … will trigger once again an arms race on this planet.”

Markey, along with the Friends Committee on National Legislation, presented 150 Campbell’s soup-type cans to members of Congress — suggesting they “can” the U.S.-Indian agreement. The back of the can’s red and white label depicts a mushroom cloud.

While the administration is lobbying against significant changes to the legislation proposed to Congress, Markey suggested debate on the agreement has just begun.

“It’s a long way from today to the day this bill passes the United States House and the United States Senate,” he said.

Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) said recently he does not expect a decision on the deal to be reached in Congress this year (see GSN, June 20). Open legislative debate on the agreement is scheduled to begin next week.

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