Missile Activity Continues in North Korea

South Korean officials said intelligence has indicated continuing activity at North Korean missile sites, though a launch does not appear imminent, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, July 6).

Japanese officials also said another long-range Taepodong 2 test does not seem to be in the works.

Nevertheless, Seoul has ordered two civilian airlines to avoid flight paths that would take aircraft near possible North Korean missile trajectories, said Civil Aviation Safety Authority official Choi Seung-hyun (Joseph Coleman, Associated Press I/Yahoo!News, July 7).

Following the international outcry in response to North Korea’s test of seven ballistic missiles this week, Pyongyang said the tests were defensive in nature, Agence France-Presse reported today.

Choe Myong Nam, councilor at North Korea’s U.N. mission in Geneva, said North Korea planned to continue missile tests to counter the perceived threat from Japan and the United States.

“This is not intended to attack anyone. Our position is that we can
continue with missile launches. We will continue with missile launches unless
the United States and Japan abandon their policy of stifling us,” Choe said.

“The United States had tried to attack us in the past but it gave up in the
end because of our power. So it is important to build up power,” he said (Agence France-Presse I/Yahoo!News, July 7).

Meanwhile, Song Il Ho, the North’s envoy to talks on normalization of relations with Japan, warned Tokyo to drop sanctions it imposed this week, AFP reported today.

“We said that we would take stronger physical actions, should criticism against (North Korea) become even stronger. That comment was made with Japan in mind,” Song said. “We will continue test-firing of missiles as part of our normal military training.”

Tokyo protested Song’s statement.

“It was extremely regrettable and we feel resentment,” said Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe (Agence France-Presse II, July 7).

U.S. President George W. Bush spoke by telephone yesterday with his Russian and Chinese counterparts, while the U.N. Security Council met for a second day on the issue, the Los Angeles Times reported.

The White House indicated that talks could take some time. Officials are not conducting “diplomacy with an egg timer,” said spokesman Tony Snow.

While Russian President Vladimir Putin criticized the tests, he also said they “should not lead to such emotions that would drown out common sense.”

“We have to create an atmosphere that will lead to compromise,” Putin said (Gerstenzang/Farley, Los Angeles Times, July 7).

Chinese President Hu Jintao told Bush that a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula should be pursued by resuming stalled six-party talks, AP reported. 

Hu said China is “committed to maintaining peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula and opposed to any actions that might intensify the situation,” the Foreign Ministry said.

Russia and China yesterday refused to back a Japanese draft U.N. resolution to impose sanctions on North Korea, while France, the United States and the United Kingdom supported the text, AP reported.

Russian Deputy U.N. Ambassador Konstantin Dolgov said Moscow favors a presidential statement, which is not legally binding.

“We don’t think that sanctions is the instrument, the leverage which is to be employed right now,” he told AP. “Strong reaction, strong message, clear message, yes.”

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton said 13 of the Security Council’s members favor a binding resolution over a presidential statement.

Bolton said a firm response is necessary due to “the potential marriage of a nuclear-weapons capability that North Korea claims it has, and it is certainly seeking, with effective long-range ballistic missile” (Edith Lederer, Associated Press II/Yahoo!News, July 7).

Bush said yesterday that the fledgling U.S. missile defense system would have been used if the missiles had approached U.S. territory, the Times reported (see related GSN story, today).

“We had a plan in place to respond if he were to fire these things,” Bush said. “If it headed to the United States, we’ve got a missile defense system that will defend our country” (Gerstenzang/Farley, Los Angeles Times).

The United States has few military options in North Korea due to the risk of retaliation against U.S. troops and allies in the region, the Christian Science Monitor reported today.

“North Korea has the capability to inflict significant harm on immediately neighboring states,” said Jonathan Pollack, an East Asia expert at the Naval War College. “That’s what constrains any thought being given to any pre-emptive kind of force.”

“How will North Korea perceive an attack on any given day?” said Anthony Cordesman, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The options tend to be ones of provoking general war.”

While the North Korea maintains a massive standing army, many experts do not believe it is a major threat.

“As long as the war was conventional, I don’t think North Korea would do much better than Iraq did,” said John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org. The fear is that Pyongyang might place nuclear weapons on rockets, or distribute materials to nations such as Iran and Syria (Mark Sappenfield, Christian Science Monitor, July 7).

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