U.S., European Diplomats Meet to Prepare Iran Strategy

Diplomats for the Western powers planned to meet today in New York to discuss Tehran’s response to their proposal to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis, but their options were limited by a lack of consensus among U.N. Security Council members, the New York Times reported (see GSN, Aug. 22).

Chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani yesterday delivered Iran’s reply to a package of incentives offered by China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States.  Details of Tehran’s position remain unreported, but Iranian officials have made clear that the nation would not suspend its uranium enrichment activities.  A suspension was required for the incentives package to proceed and demanded by the U.N. Security Council last month.

U.S. and European leaders could be ready to pursue more aggressive action, according to the Times.

“We’re not going to dance to the Iranian’s tune.  We don’t need to.  The headline is that they haven’t addressed the key issue, so the Security Council process will continue,” said a senior European official (Michael Slackman, New York Times I, Aug. 23).

“Iran’s response today is clearly a ‘no’ for Washington,” George Perkovich, nonproliferation director at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said yesterday (Dafna Linzer, Washington Post, Aug. 23).

For months, the United States has been laying the groundwork for the Security Council to impose economic sanctions if Iran failed to suspend its enrichment activity, and U.S. officials again raised the possibility yesterday.

“We will obviously study the Iranian response carefully,” said U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton.  “But we are prepared — if it does not meet the terms set — to proceed here in the Security Council … with economic sanctions.”

China and Russia, however, hold veto power over any Security Council efforts to impose economic sanctions on Iran, and both have historically shown reluctance to take such measures.

A Chinese official yesterday expressed strong reservations about imposing penalties.

“We have all along stood for a peaceful settlement of the issue through negotiations, rather than resorting to force or threatening sanctions,” said Chinese Middle East envoy Sun Bigan (Hiedeh Farmani, Agence France-Presse/Middle East Online, Aug. 23).

Russia also cautioned against making rapid decisions.

“It is very important to grasp nuances [of the Iranian response], to find constructive elements, if there are any, and make up our mind whether it is possible to work further with Tehran,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Mikhail Kamynin (Russian Foreign Ministry release, Aug. 23).

Perhaps also undercutting the U.S. position on the council are smaller-nation members that have been angered by the U.S. and French response to the Israeli-Hezbollah fighting in Lebanon.

“The Lebanese situation has caused a lot of bad faith and I think that will play into this,” said one European diplomat.

“Lebanon makes this worse because it creates an environment where the Iranians can say, ‘If you push us, we can cause real trouble and heartache for you,’” Perkovich said (Helene Cooper, New York Times II, Aug. 23).

“It’s hard to see how the U.S. can mobilize others to stop the Iranian program at this point when the last thing anyone wants to see is more conflict,” he added (Linzer, Washington Post).

The Security Council also appears to lack military options, with European diplomats fearing a degrading security situation if such measures were pursued, the Times reported.

“They’ve been dragged into three wars over there by the U.S.,” said analyst Trita Parsi, an Iranian-born author of a forthcoming book on Iran.  “They don’t want a fourth” (Cooper, New York Times II).

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