Iran Fails to Meet Deadline to Freeze Enrichment

Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran has ignored a U.N. deadline to suspend sensitive nuclear activities, the Washington Post reported Friday (see GSN, Aug. 25).

In response to the agency’s report, U.S. President George W. Bush called Iran a “grave threat” and said “there must be consequences.”

Other top U.S. officials called for U.N. sanctions.

“We are going to move this toward a sanctions resolution at the United Nations,” said Nicholas Burns, undersecretary of state for political affairs.  “We expect others to join us.”

However, no other world leaders who publicly addressed the issue used such harsh rhetoric, according to the Post.  European officials expressed disappointment with Tehran but scheduled a meeting this week with Ali Larijani, Iran’s top nuclear negotiator.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, meanwhile, remained defiant.

“The Iranian nation will not accept for one moment any bullying, invasion and violation of its rights,” he said.

Nuclear experts said, though, that Iran’s nuclear progress was slower than anticipated.  Iranian officials had said there were plans to operate three cascades of 164 centrifuges by now.  However, only one cascade has been assembled and it is not working consistently, the Post reported.

“Their progress is far less than expected,” said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security.  “Whether it’s because of technical problems or self-restraint it’s hard to gauge, but I don’t think the U.S. can deliver on its promise to get hard sanctions when Iran is barely progressing.”

Other experts warned that tough U.S. rhetoric was undermining diplomatic efforts.

“Concerns about a slippery slope toward a military conflict with Iran have hurt U.S. efforts at diplomacy,” said Robert Einhorn, a former assistant secretary of state.  “The administration approaches the idea of negotiations with Iran as if we are prepared to take yes for an answer, but also engages in activities that suggest regime change is the real objective.”

Iranian officials have privately said they could freeze nuclear efforts if talks with the West were to resume, the Post reported (Dafna Linzer, Washington Post, Sept. 1).

British Ambassador to the United Nations Emyr Jones-Parry said last week the Security Council would not press to penalize Iran for defying the Aug. 31 deadline before mid-September.

“Once we’ve had the report from the [International Atomic Energy Agency], had a further chance to discuss that, capitals will have a clearer view of exactly how this should be carried forward, but I would expect activity here to resume toward the middle of September,” he said.

Permanent Security Council member Russia has indicated reluctance to support sanctions, according to AP (Nick Wadhams, Associated Press I/Washington Post, Aug. 29).

European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana and Larijani have tentatively arranged to meet tomorrow, AP reported.

Senior negotiators of the five permanent Security Council members plus Germany are expected to meet Thursday in Berlin to discuss the outcome of that meeting.  Washington and its allies agreed last week to wait for those results before pushing for punishment of Iran, according to AP.

U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan called for a negotiated solution to the standoff.

“The best solution to the issue is talks,” he said.

Annan on Sunday met with Ahmadinejad, who said Iran favored talks but would not first halt uranium enrichment.

As a result, Germany expressed doubts about the Solana-Larijani meeting.

“We must remain skeptical” that the talks will achieve results, said Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier.  “If not, the road to the U.N. Security Council will be unavoidable” (George Jahn, Associated Press II/Washington Post, Sept. 5).

The European Union on Saturday agreed to give negotiators two weeks to clarify Tehran’s position, Reuters reported.

“If the meeting goes well and Iran accepts the philosophy of the cooperation project we presented to it in June, I think we will be able to start a more formal negotiation,” France’s Le Journal du Dimanche quoted Solana as saying.

“There’s no deadline, whenever we finish. ... We are going to start in the coming days and I hope that it will be very short.  We don’t need many meetings,” he added.

EU ministers said Solana would report to them in Brussels on Sept. 15 (Ingrid Melander, Reuters/Washington Post, Sept. 2).

Meanwhile, a study by U.S. nuclear experts has found that Iran is spending significantly more on its nuclear program than could be justified economically for a program meant only to produce energy, the Albuquerque Journal reported Friday.

The report from two U.S. national laboratories analyzes how cost-effective the program would be in dealing with Iran’s energy needs in order to evaluate the credibility of its claims about the program’s peaceful nature, according to the Journal (John Fleck, Albuquerque Journal, Sept. 1).

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