Impasse Could Spark Second North Korean Nuclear Test

Failure to resolve the dispute over U.S. financial sanctions could lead North Korea to announce its intention to conduct a second nuclear test, Reuters reported today (see GSN, Jan. 30).

Deputy Assistant Treasury Secretary Daniel Glaser is meeting in Beijing this week with North Korean officials to discuss Washington’s allegations that Pyongyang is counterfeiting U.S. currency.  The meetings were making some progress and had “established a framework” for further talks, Glaser said.

He said U.S. Secret Service officials had submitted their findings to North Korean negotiators.

However, a source close to the government in Pyongyang said Washington had not proven wrongdoing, and that North Korea was likely to raise the issue at the next round of six-nation talks.  Negotiations are scheduled to resume Feb. 8 in Beijing.

“If the United States does not resolve it, North Korea will have no choice but to announce at the six-party talks that it plans to conduct another test,” the source told Reuters.

North Korea conducted its first nuclear test on Oct. 9.

The sanctions situation will greatly determine the potential for success in the six-nation negotiations, said South Korean Foreign Minister Song Min-soon.

Song played down the likelihood for significant progress in the upcoming talks on disarming North Korea.

“We hope to adopt a joint document,” he said.  “But the substance of the document is such that it’s a ridge we have not set foot on.  So, despite the strong will of the countries to get here, whether we can will depend on a lot of consultation and time” (Benjamin Kang Lim, Reuters/Washington Post, Jan. 31).

U.S. and Asian officials expressed cautious optimism about the potential for a breakthrough at the talks, the Washington Post reported today.

The White House appears to be giving the State Department more room to negotiate proposals and outcomes in the standoff, while North Korean officials now seem interested in discussing the meat of the matter rather than focusing on minor details, officials said.

The United States and China want to see some sort of freeze placed on the Yongbyon nuclear reactor, which in the last four years has produced enough plutonium for 10 weapons, the Post reported.  Pyongyang to date has offered only to allow international nuclear inspectors back into the country.

Some resolution of the $24 million North Korean funds frozen at the Macau-based Banco Delta Asia is also likely to be part of a nuclear deal.  Washington has indicated recently that it might support releasing funds not linked to illicit North Korean financial activity (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Jan. 31).

Financial sanctions against Pyongyang “can provide a bit of leverage” in the upcoming negotiations, former U.S. national intelligence chief John Negroponte said yesterday during his confirmation hearing to become deputy secretary at the State Department.

The White House might want to reconsider the sanctions policy in order to achieve a Korean Peninsula without nuclear weapons, said Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska).

Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) argued that now, with the six-party talks set to resume, would not be the best time to press the case that North Korea used U.N. Development Program funds for its nuclear program, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Jan. 25).  The matter should have been brought up in “July, August, September or October,” he said (George Gedda, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Jan. 30).

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