Analysts Locate Possible Syrian Nuclear Site

Private analysts have identified a Syrian site that might have been the target of an Israeli raid last month that U.S. officials have said was intended to destroy an incomplete nuclear reactor, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Oct. 22).

The site is about 90 miles from the Iraqi border and lies along the Euphrates River.  That location and the nature of buildings seen in commercial satellite images suggest that the facility is indeed a nuclear site, said David Albright and Paul Brannan of the Institute for Science and International Security.

U.S. and other officials familiar with the Israeli attack said the organization had quite possibly discovered the correct site.

The commercial imagery, taken in August, shows a number of buildings, including one that has dimensions consistent with North Korea’s five-megawatt nuclear reactor at Yongbyon.

“I’m pretty convinced that Syria was trying to build a nuclear reactor,” said ISIS chief Albright.  An ISIS release acknowledges, however, that many questions remain about Syria’s plans and intentions.

Other experts questioned the certainty of Albright’s assessment.

“You can look at North Korea's [reactor] buildings, and they look like nothing,” said John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org.  “They're just metal-skinned industrial buildings.”

If Syria had begun to build a reactor, the move would violate the nation’s Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty obligations to report such construction to the International Atomic Energy Agency, according to agency sources.  The treaty requires nations to report their nuclear development plans in advance of construction, the sources said.

Agency leader Mohamed ElBaradei also expressed frustration over the failure of nations to report their intelligence findings before the Israeli attack.

“We have said, 'If any of you has the slightest information showing that there was anything linked to nuclear, we would of course be happy to investigate it,” he said in an interview with Le Monde.  “Frankly, I venture to hope that before people decide to bombard and use force, they will come and see us to convey their concerns.”

He warned that military strikes can backfire by driving potential nuclear proliferators to enhance the secrecy of their efforts.

“When the Israelis destroyed Saddam Hussein's research nuclear reactor in 1981, the consequence was that Saddam Hussein pursued his program secretly. He began to establish a huge military nuclear program underground," ElBaradei said.  “The use of force can set things back, but it does not deal with the roots of the problem” (Wright/Warrick, Washington Post, Oct. 24).

Back to top
About Newswire  |  Contact National Journal  |  Re-Use Guidelines © Copyright 2008 by National Journal Group, Inc. The material in this section is produced independently for NTI by National Journal Group, Inc. Any reproduction or retransmission, in whole or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly prohibited without the consent of the National Journal Group, Inc. All rights reserved.