North Korea Nuclear Disablement to Begin Tomorrow

North Korea is scheduled tomorrow to begin disabling facilities at its plutonium-producing Yongbyon nuclear complex, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Oct. 30).

Pyongyang has pledged to declare and disable its nuclear program by the end of the year, another step in the anticipated dismantlement of its atomic complex.  In return it stands to receive energy aid and security and diplomatic benefits.

“I think we are in pretty good shape on that,” top U.S. negotiator Christopher Hill said of the disablement effort.  “There are a couple of issues that have to be worked through but I think we have an agreement on what we’re doing generally.”

Experts from the United States are scheduled to arrive tomorrow in North Korea to oversee the process. The team is expected to monitor disablement at 10 areas at Yongbyon, including a nuclear reactor, spent fuel reprocessing plant and a fuel fabrication site, according to South Korean Foreign Minister Song Min-soon.

“This is the first step for the North’s nuclear abandonment,” he said.  “Once the disablement is completed, it would take North Korea a considerable period of time to restart the facilities” (Dan Martin, Agence France-Presse/Channelnewsasia.com, Oct. 31).

Hill met today with lead North Korean negotiator Kim Kye Gwan in Beijing, Reuters reported.

“It was a useful exchange of information.  It was not a negotiation,” the U.S. envoy said.  “We’re at a phase now where we’re talking a lot about nuts and bolts.”

Pyongyang plans to “seriously implement” the denuclearization agreement, Kim said, according to Kyodo News.  “At this stage, there are no major differences in opinion,” he said.

Hill acknowledged that significant work remains ahead.

“We do have in mind in the beginning of ’08 another phase, and that is the final, irreversible dismantling of these facilities and very importantly the abandonment of the weaponized plutonium,” he said (Lindsay Beck, Reuters I/Yahoo!News, Oct. 31).

Experts warned that disabling Yongbyon would not irreversibly put North Korea out of the nuclear business, Reuters reported.

“Disabling means that it will be more difficult, but not impossible, to resume operations — that is, it will take time, effort and money,” said former Los Alamos National Laboratory chief Siegfried Hecker by e-mail.

The work is likely to involve removal of nuclear equipment, a process that would take about a year to reverse, said researcher Kim Tae-woo of the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses.

“High-level disablement would be like pouring cement into the insides of the car with no tires,” he said.  “Low level would be like leaving the engine but just pulling out the generator so the car doesn’t start”

Pyongyang should not be expected to accept a permanent end to work at the complex that supplies material for North Korean nuclear weapons, observers said (Jon Herskovitz, Reuters/Yahoo!News, Oct. 31).

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