Iran Spurs Middle East Nuclear Race

Thirteen Middle Eastern nations over the last year have declared their interest in nuclear power, amidst suspected efforts by Iran to create a nuclear weapons capability, the Christian Science Monitor reported today (see GSN, Sept. 21).

According to some analysts, predominantly Sunni Muslim countries such as Jordan, Libya, Saudi Arabia and Yemen have opted to pursue nuclear power in an attempt to counter Iran’s perceived push for greater regional prestige and influence through its controversial nuclear activities. 

“To have 13 states in the region say they're interested in nuclear power over the course of a year certainly catches the eye," says Mark Fitzpatrick, a fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.  “The Iranian angle is the reason.”

“Although Egypt does not feel directly threatened by Iran, it does feel its own power and influence in the region threatened by a resurgent nuclear-armed Iran," he said.

The dearth of natural resources in Jordan and decreasing oil reserves in Egypt and elsewhere have foreshadowed a time when nuclear power might become less expensive than oil-based energy.

“The rules have changed on the nuclear subject throughout the whole region," King Abdullah of Jordan told an Israeli newspaper earlier this year.  “Where I think Jordan was saying, ‘We'd like to have a nuclear-free zone in the area,’ … (now) everybody's going for nuclear programs.”

The United States and other Western powers have expressed strong opposition to Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, which could produce material for a nuclear weapon, but they have generally been more tolerant of nuclear programs in other Middle Eastern nations.

Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, expressed concern at U.S. inaction on Middle Eastern nuclear development outside of Iran.

“I think we're trying to put out a fire of proliferation with a bucket of kerosene," he said.

Sokolski said a high-level Bush administration official had recently told him that nuclear power programs in Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries were “inevitable” and the United States should support them in order to have some say in those efforts.

An Egyptian decision to develop its own nuclear fuel cycle would be a clue that it plans a program that goes beyond energy, said nonproliferation expert Jon Wolfsthal of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.  If you are interested in having the capability of building a nuclear weapon, the best way to start is by building up your nuclear power infrastructure,” he said.

Egypt is unlikely to agree not to develop the fuel cycle or allow heightened international monitoring to provide that it has no weapons plans, Fitzpatrick said.  “They already resent the nuclear asymmetry with Israel, and a nuclear-armed Iran on top of that adds too much for them,” he said (Dan Murphy, Christian Science Monitor, Nov. 1).

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