U.S. Has Plans to Prevent Nuclear Theft in Pakistan

The United States some time ago made plans to prevent the theft of nuclear weapons in Pakistan, the Washington Post reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 9).

Little detail was available regarding the intelligence plans, but former officials said the intent would be to remove a weapon that appeared set to be acquired by terrorists.  Scenarios involve situations in which the Pakistani military is able to provide assistance or is unable to help, said Harvard University nonproliferation expert Matthew Bunn.

“We’re a long way from any scenario of that kind,” he said.  “But the current turmoil highlights the need for doing whatever we can right now to improve cooperation and think hard about what might happen down the road.”

Doubts about the stability of the government in Islamabad, continued operations by anti-Western insurgents in the country, and the proliferation activities of former top nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan have raised worries about the security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.  The concerns have been highlighted by the chaos that erupted after President Gen. Pervez Musharraf on Nov. 3 declared an emergency and suspended the country’s constitution.

The Bush administration in recent years has poured tens of millions of dollars into nuclear security safeguards in Pakistan.  However, U.S. experts have not received direct access to sites that contain the nuclear weapons.

“We can’t say with absolute certainty that we know where they all are,” said one former U.S. official.  “It could be very messy” if the United States attempts to take control of the weapons, the official said.

The greatest perceived nuclear threat in Pakistan now is that weapons would be diverted to terrorists seeking to strike the United States rather than a nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India.

The country’s estimated 50 nuclear weapons are stored in separate parts at military installations, forcing thieves to “knock over two buildings to get a complete bomb,”  Bunn said.  “Theft would be more difficult to pull off, though presumably in a crisis that might change.”

U.S. officials believe Pakistani nuclear security can handle a “fair amount of political commotion,” said former National Counterterrorism Center chief John Brennan.  However, that assessment could change in the face of a rapidly deteriorating situation.

“There are some scenarios in which the country slides into a situation of anarchy in which some of the more radical elements may be ascendant,” he said.  “If there is a collapse in the command-and-control structure — or if the armed forces fragment — that’s a nightmare scenario.  If there are different power centers within the army, they will each see the strategic arsenal as a real prize.”

Even if military security holds, some nuclear personnel might seek to profit by selling nuclear material or parts, said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security.

“If stability doesn’t return, you do have to worry about the thinking of the people with access to these things,” he said.  “As loyalties break down, they may look for an opportunity to make a quick buck.  You may not be able to get the whole weapon, but maybe you can get the core” (Joby Warrick, Washington Post, Nov. 11).

Islamabad today reaffirmed its nuclear security, the Associated Press reported.

“Pakistan’s nuclear program is very well guarded,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammed Sadiq (Associated Press/Washington Post, Nov. 12).

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