Pakistani Military Likely to Secure Nuclear Arsenal if Musharraf Government Collapses, Analysts Say

Analysts say U.S. prospects are poor for securing Pakistani nuclear weapons in the event of a government collapse, but the nation’s military would almost certainly prevent Islamic extremists from acquiring the weapons, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, Nov. 13).

A growing political crisis in the nation has raised international concerns that terrorists could gain a nuclear capability if Pakistan’s domestic security deteriorates, and some reports have indicated that Washington has explored ways to secure endangered weapons (see GSN, Nov. 12).

Some U.S. analysts, however, said such action would be difficult.

“There's no good military option at all," said Daniel Markey, a former U.S. State Department official now with the Council on Foreign Relations.  Such an operation would create an "incredibly ugly scenario," he said.

“Having some certainty of finding them is just, I think, out of the realm of reality,” he added.

A better solution to ensuring nuclear security is to maintain “a good working relationship" with Pakistan’s army, Markey said.  “We shouldn't kid ourselves that we can work with Pakistan without working with their army and that doesn't mean we have to back a dictator.”

Another expert said that the chances of extremists landing the nuclear weapons were slim, even if Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf falls.

“Only if there's a complete breakdown in society, would there be an issue.  Even then, I think you'll find a cadre, a very loyal military who protect the assets because it's the patrimony of the country," said Leonard Spector, deputy director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.

“The idea that somehow we're going to step in, I think that's a very remote possibility," he added.

For his part, Musharraf yesterday insisted that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal was safe, thanks to special security measures installed in 2000.

“We created a strategic planning division and we have a national command authority which is [the] overall organization institution into development and employment of strategic assets," Musharraf told Fox News radio. 

The nation’s weapons were under “total custodial controls,” he added (Lachlan Carmichael, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Nov. 14).

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