Iranian Centrifuges Running Better Than Expected

Iran has begun to operate its uranium enrichment centrifuges at higher speeds, moving the nation closer to producing nuclear fuel at the “industrial scale” already claimed by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, May 14).

Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency visited Iran’s underground enrichment facility Sunday, giving Iranian officials just two hours to allow the inspectors into the site, according to the Times.

What they found were about 1,300 centrifuges operating at higher speeds, thus more productively, than previously expected.  Iranian officials have steadfastly claimed their efforts are intended to produce fuel for a future Iranian nuclear power program, but the United States and other nations fear that Tehran could use the same equipment to make nuclear weapon materials (David Sanger, New York Times, May 15).

“They are speeding up some centrifuges (the machines which spin rotors at supersonic speeds to enrich uranium) and beginning to enrich towards an industrial level” said one diplomat (Michael Adler, Agence France-Presse I/Yahoo!News, May 15.

“We believe they pretty much have the knowledge about how to enrich,” added agency head Mohamed ElBaradei.  “From now on, it is simply a question of perfecting that knowledge. People will not like to hear it, but that’s a fact.”

The development could affect U.S. strategy toward resolving the nuclear crisis, the Times reported.

U.S. diplomatic efforts have sought to prevent Iran from operating any centrifuges, but Tehran has pushed its program forward while Washington, the European Union and the U.N. Security Council have made repeated demands for an Iranian freeze.

The Bush administration may need to adjust its goals by seeking to deny Iran the ability to rapidly convert its civilian program to a military one, said a senior European diplomat.

The aim of suspending Iran’s enrichment activities is probably obsolete, agreed ElBaradei, who has advocated finding a face-saving solution for all sides.

“Quite clearly suspension is a requirement by the Security Council, and I would hope the Iranians would listen to the world community,” he said.  “But from a proliferation perspective, the fact of the matter is that one of the purposes of suspension — keeping them from getting the knowledge — has been overtaken by events.”

“The focus now should be to stop them from going to industrial-scale production, to allow us to do a full-court-press inspection and to be sure they remain inside the [Nuclear Nonproliferation] Treaty,” ElBaradei added.

The Sunday inspection indicated that Iran is operating about 1,300 centrifuges in eight 164-centrifuge “cascades,” the Times reported.  Technicians were testing another two cascades and installing two others.

“They are at the stage where they are doing one cascade a week,” said a diplomat familiar with the analysis of Iran’s activities.  That rate could allow Iran to have 8,000 centrifuges installed by the end of the year.

The current batch of centrifuges has been enriching uranium to nuclear fuel-grade levels, containing less than 5 percent of the uranium 235 isotope that suits nuclear weapons.  Weapon-grade uranium typically contains more than 90 percent of the key isotope (Sanger, New York Times).

Meanwhile, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said yesterday that he expects to meet with lead Iranian nuclear diplomat Ali Larijani within two weeks, Agence France-Presse reported.

“I don’t know the exact date, but we are working on it,” he said in Brussels.  The meeting “will probably take place at the end of the month,” he said (Agence France-Presse II/Yahoo!News, May 14).

The latest U.N. Security Council deadline for Iran to freeze its enrichment program arrives May 23, and IAEA head ElBaradei is expected to issue an assessment of the Iranian program early next week, according to the Times (Sanger, New York Times).

Back to top
About Newswire  |  Contact National Journal  |  Re-Use Guidelines © Copyright 2008 by National Journal Group, Inc. The material in this section is produced independently for NTI by National Journal Group, Inc. Any reproduction or retransmission, in whole or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly prohibited without the consent of the National Journal Group, Inc. All rights reserved.