Russia Faces Missile Shortage

Russia will need to significantly accelerate its strategic missile production if it hopes to maintain parity with U.S. forces, defense analysts said yesterday.

Their comments followed the first flight-test of a new Russian long-range missile capable of carrying multiple warheads (see GSN, May 29).  The missile, designated the RS-24, is intended to replace two aging Cold War missiles that are expected to become unserviceable in less than 10 years, the Moscow Times reported.

Russia’s strategic rocket forces would need to deploy about 40 of the new missiles annually to keep roughly equal numbers with the United States, said Ivan Safranchuk, Moscow director of the Washington-based World Security Institute.

Recently, Russia has annually deployed only about six Topol M missiles, a single-warhead ICBM (see GSN, Feb. 7).

Yesterday’s test came amid tensions over U.S. plans to deploy missile interceptors in Eastern Europe, and Russian officials said the new system would be able to penetrate any U.S. defenses.

Still, Russia would need to replenish its missiles to feel confident in its deterrent, said Kevin Ryan, a Harvard University researcher.

“As their arsenal declines and our defense increases, there could come a time, sooner than later, when the two trends could be great enough to affect the strategic balance,” he said.

Russia plans to deploy the new missile on mobile launchers, a move that would reduce the missiles’ vulnerability to U.S. attack, Safranchuk said.  He urged U.S. officials to consider extending the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, a pact that requires both sides to declare the locations of their land-based strategic nuclear weapons.

If the treaty expires as scheduled in 2009, Russia would not be required to disclose the location of the new missiles, he said (see GSN, May 23).

“This should become an issue of serious concern for Americans,” Safranchuk said (Simon Saradzhyan, Moscow Times, May 30).

The RS-24 is derived from the Topol M, originally designed to carry up to three nuclear warheads but has so far been armed with just one, Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye reported last week.

Because the single-warhead version has extra room in its nosecone, Russia has fitted the Topol Ms with maneuverable reentry vehicles, according to the magazine (see GSN, Aug. 16, 2006).

Those systems enable a descending warhead to zigzag unpredictably, making the job of intercepting them vastly more difficult, said Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky, chief of Russia’s general staff (Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, Defense and Security, May 30).

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