Iran Not a Missile Threat, Russian Lawmaker Says

By Jon Fox
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A senior Russian lawmaker yesterday called the Iranian missile threat “not convincing,” dismissing the U.S. justification for controversial proposed missile defense installations in Eastern Europe (see GSN, June 21).

As the United States has forged ahead with plans to install a radar facility in the Czech Republic and 10 missile interceptors in Poland, Russian opposition and rhetoric has become increasingly strident.

Administration officials are set to begin a second round of negotiations with Polish representatives Monday in Washington.

“This is an issue that concerns the Russian Federation to a high degree,” said Konstantin Kosachev, head the international affairs committee in the Duma, the lower house of parliament, during a joint meeting of U.S. and Russian lawmakers in the House of Representatives.

Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested earlier this month that the United States use a radar facility leased by Russia in Azerbaijan, rather than installing a new missile-tracking radar in the Czech Republic.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has said the United States would continue to pursue the Czech site even if the Azeri facility is explored as an “additional capability.”  The Russian suggestion is likely to be on the agenda for a July 1-2 meeting between Putin and President George W. Bush in Kennebunkport, Maine, according to administration officials (see GSN, June 15).

U.S. officials contend the Eastern European missile defense sites would help to protect both Europe and the United States from missiles launched by Iran.  The Russian government regards those preparations as unnecessary.

Iran does not have a missile with the 5,000- to 6,000-kilometer range that would enable it to strike Europe, Kosachev said.  It is not likely to possess such a capability even over the next two decades, he said.

Iranian missile technology is based on old Soviet designs, Kosachev said, adding that Tehran simply does not have the industrial infrastructure to improve its ballistic missile fleet.  Iran’s longest-range missile, the Shahab 3, has a flight distance of 2,000 kilometers and is tested regularly (see GSN, Nov. 2, 2006).

“Creating new missiles and launchers is really impossible to do so that no one would notice,” Kosachev said.

U.S. officials say their best intelligence is that Iran by 2015 could be armed with an ICBM capable of hitting the continental United States.

During the joint meeting, both Democratic and Republican members of Congress contended that the limited missile interceptors planned by the United States would not damage the deterrence provided by the hundreds of ballistic missiles still maintained by Russia.

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Tom Lantos (D-Calif.) called the planned U.S. installations a “very elementary missile shield,” but added, “I personally think our government mishandled this matter.”

“I think we should have consulted with our Russian friends,” he said.

“The threats coming from rogue regimes like Iran and North Korean are real and must be taken seriously,” said Representative Joe Wilson (R-S.C.).

This morning, a senior administration official speaking on the topic of missile defense reiterated U.S. estimates on the Iranian missile threat.

“I think to confidently say in 20 years time there won’t be a threat, well, we just have a difference of opinion there,” the official said on the subject of the gulf between the U.S. and Russian viewpoints.  He spoke on condition of being quoted only as a senior official.

The official also said there is a “reasonable probability” that North Korea would transfer its missile technology to Iran.  Despite the failed test flight in July 2006, U.S. officials believe the most advanced iteration of the North Korean Taepodong missile has the capability to strike the United States.

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