Growing International Space Capabilities Threaten to Trigger Military Competition, Experts Say

By Seamus Kraft
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A new military competition threatens to accelerate international efforts to dominate space, four experts agreed yesterday at a major nonproliferation conference here.  Whether the race will end in chaos or in concord remains to be seen, they said (see GSN, April 23).

“China’s recent activities are a test case,” said John Logsdon of the Space Policy Institute at the George Washington University, referring to a successful January test in which China destroyed a satellite with a ground-launched missile (see GSN, Jan. 19).

“A Chinese colonel has told me that China must have defensive space capabilities before” it will agree to limit its space-related military options,” Logsdon said.

“It is hard for me to disagree,” he told participants at the Carnegie International Nonproliferation Conference.

The Chinese test might prove to be a bellwether of similar antisatellite weapons testing by other nations.

Other threats to space could come as private contractors improve their space-launch capabilities and market their services to nations that have so far been unable to reach orbit.

The British-based Surrey Satellite Technology, for example, launched a $14 million communications satellite for Nigeria last year.

“[Former U.S. Defense Secretary] Donald Rumsfeld called Surrey the greatest threat to our national security today,” said panelist Rebecca Johnson of the London-based Acronym Institute for Disarmament Diplomacy.

The experts agreed that the United Nations offered the most disinterested forum for nations to mediate their orbital aspirations.

“The U.S. must robustly engage at the U.N. level to solve emerging space questions,” said Peter Hays, a contractor to the U.S. National Security Space Office.

Hays also urged the Bush administration to improve its public articulation of U.S. goals in space.  He said the National Space Policy announced last year illustrated the challenges facing the United States as it adjusts to new neighbors in orbit. 

The policy failed to recognize contemporary space activities and appears similar to the first official policy announced about 50 years ago.

“There was much continuity from the Eisenhower administration through today in that document,” Hays said.  In addition, he criticized the Bush policy for a lack of transparency.

“The U.S. did as piss-poor job of preparing the field to roll this report out.”

“Lots of people think there are secret space weapons programs going on,” he added.  “I’ve seen the U.S. space program budgets.  Get over it.  It just ain’t there.”

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