Prospects Remain Dim for Entry Into Force of Nuclear Test Ban

By Greg Webb
Global Security Newswire

VIENNA — More than 100 nations sought today to build pressure on just 10 countries to allow a global treaty banning nuclear weapons tests to take effect (see GSN, Sept. 26, 2005).

Bringing the pact into force would initiate “an effective measure of nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation,” the group said in a final consensus statement approved today at a special conference here convened to discuss strategies to promote the treaty.

“We knew we were going to be in for the long haul,” Dutch diplomat Jaap Ramaker said in a panel discussion today. 

“And the long haul it has been, indeed,” added Ramaker, a key player in disarmament diplomacy over the past two decades who now serves as special representatives to nations pursuing the treaty’s entry into force.

With strong U.S. leadership during its negotiation, the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty was opened for signature in 1996, and 177 states have since signed the pact that would prohibit all explosive nuclear testing.  Earlier testing treaties have limited the size of nuclear tests and required that they be conducted underground to better contain radioactive material.

The latest treaty’s provisions for entering into force have resulted in slow progress.

“Unfortunately, one has to acknowledge again that there is little positive dynamism in matters of entry into force of this most important treaty,” assessed Russian delegation leader Alexander Zmeyevsky, speaking to the conference.

The treaty requires that 44 specific nations, chosen in 1996 because they possessed nuclear facilities, must ratify the pact before it can take effect.  Only 10 countries have not taken that step, but the group’s composition has led experts to question whether the treaty can take effect any time soon.

Chief among the holdouts is the United States, which changed its position toward the treaty when President George W. Bush took office in 2001, reflecting the Republican Party’s general opposition to the agreement.  The GOP-led Senate rejected the treaty in 1999.

Today, Washington finds itself in the company of North Korea and Iran among countries that have not fully joined the treaty.  The other holdouts preventing entry into force are China, Colombia, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Israel and Pakistan.

Such is the Bush administration’s disregard for the treaty that it sent no representatives to the meeting, preferring not to respond to the waves of criticism issued by dozens of nations over the past two days.  This week’s meeting was the fifth such session, and the United States attended only the first one in 1999.

Bush administration officials have expressed concern that the treaty is unverifiable and could prevent the United States from ensuring that its nuclear arsenal remains safe and works properly.

Also reflecting its disinterest, the United States has failed to pay its full dues to the treaty’s implementing organization which has established a global network of scientific tools designed to detect the smallest of nuclear blasts.

By being more than a year in arrears, the United States has lost its voting rights in the organization.

According one organization document, Washington owed more than $28 million as of last week.  This represents about one-quarter of the agency’s annual budget.

Congress is considering a bill to fund the U.S. contribution, according to Daryl Kimball, head of the Arms Control Association.  The Bush administration has requested $18 million, less than its current annual obligation to the organization of about $20 million. The U.S. Senate has allocated $28 million and the U.S. House has suggested $10 million, a difference that will soon be decided in a conference meeting, Kimball said.

Washington was a target of many nations over the past two days, as illustrated by Malaysia, which criticized U.S. efforts in 2005 to shorten the time needed to prepare a nuclear test and to pursue development of a new type of nuclear warhead (see GSN, July 25).

“The failure of this nuclear-weapon state to ratify the treaty … is undermining this most important instrument against nuclear testing,” said Malaysian representative Dato’Mohammed Arshad Hussain, speaking for the Nonaligned Movement.

Other holdout nations have expressed varying amounts of support or opposition to the treaty.

China signed the treaty early on, but has not yet ratified the pact, perhaps waiting for Washington to go first, according to some analysts here.

Officially, a Chinese diplomat reported that the issue is simply waiting on lawmakers for action.

China has “submitted the treaty to the National People’s Congress for its review.  As the supreme legislative institution, the National People’s Congress would review the treaty in a comprehensive and detailed way in accordance with the procedures of the law,” said Chinese delegation leader Ambassador Tang Guoqiang.

Colombia has also expressed support for the treaty, but has claimed to have a legal difficulty in finalizing the agreement.  Colombian law reportedly does not allow the government to ratify treaties that are not yet in force, creating a quandary when the treaty cannot enter into force without Colombian ratification.

Three nations — India, North Korea and Pakistan — have simply refused to sign the treaty and prospects for signature appear dim.

Kimball today criticized a pending U.S.-Indian nuclear trade deal for failing to pressure New Delhi even to refrain from nuclear testing, much less join the treaty.  Terms of the nuclear deal call for the United States to aid India in acquiring nuclear fuel even if U.S. supplies are cut off in response to an Indian nuclear test (see GSN, Aug. 6).

Many nations here also criticized North Korea’s decision last year to conduct a small nuclear test (see GSN, Oct. 16, 2006).

The test had one positive result, however, in that it ably demonstrated the treaty’s verification system, which first detected the blast using seismic sensors and later confirmed the nature and size of explosion by measuring air samples.

Despite the slow progress toward the treaty’s entry into force, Kimball offered some optimism.

“U.S. ratification of the CTBT is within reach,” he told today’s seminar, and Washington’s approval should free up other holdout nations.

The key is next year’s U.S. presidential and congressional elections.  Every major candidate from the Democratic Party has publicly supported the treaty, he said.  Even with presidential support, though, the treaty’s U.S. passage cannot be guaranteed because two-thirds of the Senate must consent as well.  Even if Democrats make gains in the Senate next year, they will probably still need to persuade about a dozen Republicans to support the treaty, Kimball estimated.

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