U.S. Missile Defenses in Europe Could Undermine Russian Nuclear Deterrent, Physicists Say

Prominent U.S. physicists are challenging the Bush administration’s claims that its missile defense proposal for Europe would pose no threat to Russia’s nuclear deterrent, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Sept. 26).

Moscow has repeatedly characterized plans for a radar base in the Czech Republic and 10 missile interceptors in Poland as a threat to its strategic security.  Washington has said its proposal is aimed at a potential Iranian missile threat, with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice calling the Russian claims “ludicrous.”

“The reason we selected Poland and the Czech Republic for the potential positions of these assets is because it was optimum for the Iranian threat,” Lt. Gen. Henry Obering, head of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, said in March.  “They are not positioned to where we can even catch the Russian missiles with these interceptors.”

Six U.S. scientists have disputed both claims in Obering’s statement.  U.S. interceptors have the speed to bring down an ICBM launched against the United States from western Russia, according to Massachusetts Institute of Technology physicist Theodore Postol, a critic of the missile defense program.  While the Missile Defense Agency says missile interceptors in Poland would have a burnout speed of 3.9 miles per second, Postol argues their speed could be faster than 5.6 miles per second.

The physicists also argue that the United States could better offset a missile threat from Iran by placing the radar and interceptors closer to the Middle Eastern nation, AP reported.

“The claim by the Missile Defense Agency is not correct,” said Postol, who wrote a study on the claims with George Lewis of Cornell University.  “And it is hard to understand how they could get something so basic wrong.”

Four physicists have supported the findings of Postol and Lewis.

The scientists do not question the U.S. contention that 10 missile interceptors in Poland would prove no match against the large Russian stockpile of nuclear-tipped missiles.

The Missile Defense Agency said that interceptors in the real world would not function as efficiently as estimated by Postol.  However, hydrogen bomb designer Richard Garwin said that Postol actually underestimated the efficiency of at least one rocket motor (Desmond Butler, Associated Press I/Yahoo!News, Sept. 27).

Meanwhile, a senior U.S. State Department official said yesterday that the missile defense proposal for Europe could help deter a war with Iran, AP reported.

“Our intent is to address emerging threats in the Middle East,” said Assistant Secretary of State John Rood, who is leading negotiations with Poland and the Czech Republic.  “Countries like Iran are developing long-range missile systems.  And we’re concerned not only about the emerging capability but of the hostile intent from countries in the region.”

“We think (missile defense) helps create disincentives for development of missiles,” he added (Jason Keyser, Associated Press II/Washington Post, Sept. 26).

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