China, U.S. Press North Korean Denuclearization

A handful of top-level negotiators from China and the United States met yesterday to work on details of incentives intended to push North Korea toward denuclearization, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Feb. 27).

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill remained in Beijing yesterday rather than accompanying Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to Japan during her Asia trip.

Little was said publicly regarding the proposals being floated during the talks.  However, one idea was to establish a more concrete schedule under which North Korea would be rewarded as it took particular steps toward eliminating its nuclear sector (see GSN, Nov. 28, 2007).  Specific moves by Pyongyang could be met with economic and trade benefits, development support and diplomatic recognition by the other nations in the six-party talks — China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States.

“It’s a question of everybody moving pretty much at the same time, that would be best,” Rice said.  “We need to establish confidence in this phase that there is the prospect for real denuclearization in the next phase.”

North Korea met its first-phase obligation under the 2007 deal by halting operations at its Yongbyon nuclear complex.  The regime is also disabling its sole operating nuclear reactor and two other plants.

However, work at the reactor has slowed this year due to technical difficulties and Pyongyang’s complaints that it is not receiving rewards in a timely fashion.  The United States, meanwhile, said that it would not provide some benefits — such as North Korea’s removal from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism — until the regime submits the mandatory full declaration of its nuclear activities.

Negotiations are “stalled,” Japanese Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura said.  He said, though, that Tokyo remains committed to seeing “an early submission of a complete and correct declaration” (Matthew Lee, Associated Press I/Yahoo!News, Feb. 27).

Hill left Beijing today following his extended stay, AP reported.  A spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that Hill and Chinese negotiator Wu Dawei yesterday discussed strategies for producing “favorable conditions for the talks to enter into the next stage” (Associated Press II/Yahoo!News, Feb. 28).

A sticking point in negotiations has been Washington’s demand that Pyongyang address its suspected uranium enrichment efforts.

U.S. National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell yesterday reaffirmed the intelligence community’s “medium confidence” in the continued existence of such a program.  That assessment is down from high confidence in 2002, the year the Bush administration first made the uranium allegation, the Yonhap News Agency reported (see GSN, May 16, 2007).

“The reason for [the change] is the evidence that we saw — and when you have a situation like this, you have shreds and pieces and some level of data — is not as consistent today as it was when we made the original estimate,” McConnell said during a congressional hearing (see related GSN story, today).

McConnell said Pyongyang likely has produced roughly 50 kilograms of plutonium, which could be used in 12 nuclear weapons.

“That’s enough for 12, if you know how to do it,” he said.  “So the better guess is six, but it could be 12.”

He also suggested that North Korean leaders are not well acquainted with the truth.

“One thing I’ve discovered about North Koreans is they have no idea of truth.  It’s not in their makeup,” McConnell said (Yonhap News Agency, Feb. 27).

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