Chinese Nuke Arsenal Spiked Since 2006, Report Shows

New U.S. figures suggest that the size of the Chinese nuclear arsenal appears to has increased by about one-third since 2006, the Federation of American Scientists said yesterday (see GSN, March 4).

The boost is linked to China’s deployment of a new generation of solid-fuel cruise missiles and ICBMs. 

While decommissioning of older missiles in coming years is expected to cut into the growth, “the trend is toward a slightly larger arsenal in the future,” the Federation of American Scientists said yesterday.

In its annual report on China’s military capabilities, the U.S. Defense Department said that Beijing is deploying a new intermediate-range ballistic missile, the Dongfeng 31, but estimates that fewer than 10 of the missiles are operational on the same number of launchers.  China also appears to have deployed fewer than 10 Dongfeng 31A missiles, a longer-range version of the 31, even though there have been no reports of the weapon undergoing flight testing, according to the federation.  The 31A could reach the continental United States.

China has deployed additional Dongfeng 21 short-range missiles since 2006, for a total of between 60 and 80 of the missiles on roughly 60 launchers, the report estimates.  In 2007, the Pentagon estimated that China had upward of 50 missiles fielded on 34 to 38 launchers.

China’s submarine-launched JL-1 is apparently not operational, as indicated by its exclusion from the new report.  The newer JL-2 is expected to become operational by 2010, but its estimated range was reduced by about 10 percent, from roughly 4,970 miles to about 4,475 miles.  A submarine in Chinese waters could not use the missile against the continental United States and could hit Hawaii only by entering the Sea of Japan or passing the Japan-Okinawa island chain, according to the federation.

The Defense Department said earlier this week that Washington and Beijing had “agreed to move forward on our dialogue on nuclear strategy and policy.”  The Pentagon said that “a discussion between Chinese military officers and Chinese military academics and counterparts here in the U.S.” would be organized within the next few months (Hans Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, March 6).

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