Indian officials have indicated that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal would not deter India from pursuing a conventional war against Pakistan, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Jan. 3).  The information is creating concern among arms control experts that nuclear deterrence is ineffective in the dispute between the two countries, according to the Post.

“There is a growing feeling that we will not be deterred by the nuclear shield of Pakistan,” said Commodore Uday Bhaskar of the Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis, a research organization with ties to the Indian military.

India Can Fight Limited War, Officials Say

Indian senior officials said they were seriously considering sending troops into Pakistan if Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf does not comply with Indian demands to shut down Muslim militant operations (see GSN, Jan. 4).  India has positioned hundreds of thousands of soldiers and weapons along the Pakistan-India border.

India’s apparent determination has suggested to many experts that Cold War nuclear deterrence theory, which many experts believe prevented war between the Soviet Union and United States, has not worked in South Asia.  Indian military planners believe that India can fight a limited war with Pakistan without either country resorting to nuclear strikes, said an Indian official.

“We would not resort to nuclear weapons … And we do not envision striking [Pakistan] in a way that would lead them to use their nuclear weapons,” the official said.

“India’s way of looking at this is that we’re not threatening Pakistan’s core interests, so they would have no incentive to launch their nuclear weapons,” Bhaskar said.

India would be very unlikely to launch an extensive attack on Pakistan but would probably strike against training camps and facilities that India believes Muslim militants use, experts said.  Rather than try to capture territory, India would try to show Pakistan that support for terrorist organizations carries serious consequences, Indian analysts said.

Indian leaders believe Pakistan would not consider nuclear retaliation an appropriate response to limited Indian attacks, Indian analysts said.

Does Limited Fighting Indicate Partial Deterrence?

At least one analyst believes India’s focus on fighting a limited war indicates that nuclear weapons have helped keep aggressions cooler than they would be otherwise.

“Nuclear weapons have pushed the level of conflict down in South Asia … Both sides are exploring the fuzzy lines between a very low-intensity conflict and a conventional war,” said Stephen Cohen of the Brookings Institution (see GSN, Jan. 4).

India Does Not Want to Be Blackmailed

Indian military leaders believe that in 1999 Pakistan supported a guerilla invasion in the Kargil mountains over the Line of Control, which divides Indian and Pakistani territory in Kashmir, the Post reported.  Pakistan thought that because it had nuclear weapon capability, it could fight battles along the border without facing major Indian retaliation, analysts said.

The incident actually hardened Indian resolve to defend its interests despite Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.

“India has realized that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are useless for anything other than blackmail,” said Brahma Chellaney of the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi, adding that India would “not be blackmailed.”

India Would “Win” a Nuclear War, Officials Say

Even if Pakistan does retaliate against India with nuclear weapons, Indian military leaders have said they are not afraid of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal because India could absorb a first strike and still have the ability to hit back with a second strike (see GSN, Jan. 11).

Pakistan does not have missiles with a range long enough to hit India’s southern and eastern cities, but Indian missiles could reach all of Pakistan’s major cities.  “We could take a strike, survive and then hit back,” said Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes.  “Pakistan would be finished.”

Pakistan, therefore, would not attack India with nuclear weapons unless Pakistan believes a India poses a threat to Pakistan’s existence, Bhaskar said.  “It would be like committing suicide,” he said. 

Pakistan’s View

A nuclear war is “something that I think one should not even consider,” said Pakistani spokesman Maj. Gen. Rashid Qureshi.  India has said it would not attack with nuclear weapons first (see GSN, Jan. 7).  Pakistan has not committed to a no-first-strike policy, but Pakistani officials have said that both India and Pakistan are responsible with their nuclear weapons.

Nuclear weapons have helped Pakistan fill in for its conventional military inferiority, the Post reported.  Pakistan has far fewer soldiers and much less military equipment than India.

Worries of Nuclear Escalation

Despite Indian assurances that it would conduct a limited war against Pakistan, many arms control experts have expressed concern that the situation could easily turn into a nuclear confrontation.

Recent intelligence reports have indicated that both countries have prepared their missiles for use and increased activity at nuclear installations, the Post reported.  Although some experts said such activity could indicate increasing protection of the weapons, many experts remained concerned, according to the Post. 

“The danger is not that either side intends to use nuclear weapons, but that a miscalculation could occur that leads to their release,” said Joseph Cirincione, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“We may be in a situation where nuclear warheads are being assembled and moved.  That raises the possibility of an accident.” he said.  “If that happened, would the country that experienced the accident know what happened?  Might they interpret it as a strike and retaliate?”

India and Pakistan are so close to each other that the countries would have less than eight minutes to react to a suspected launch of a nuclear missile, the Post reported.

“Given the history of these two nations, any conflict can easily get out of control,” said Praful Bidwai, co-author of a book called South Asia on a Short Fuse.  “People who think we don’t need to worry about nuclear weapons are living in denial” (Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Washington Post, Jan. 17).

India Might Conduct All-Out War

It is “very probable” that India and Pakistan would eventually conduct nuclear attacks, although it is not “inevitable,” said defense analyst Pavel Felgenhauer, in a recent article in the Moscow Times.

India would want to capture the part of Kashmir under Pakistani control and could try to break Pakistan into numerous tribal states that India could dominate, Felgenhauer said.  That was India’s strategy when it supported efforts by Bangladesh (then East Bengal) to separate from Pakistan in 1971

Although Musharraf is afraid of war with India and has promised to crack down on militants, Pakistan could not abandon Kashmiri Muslims, Felgenhauer said.  The result could be nuclear war, and India would likely win, due in part to its more numerous and more sophisticated plutonium-core nuclear weapons, Felgenhauer said.  Pakistan’s arsenal consists of fewer bombs, and they contain low-yield uranium, he said.

If India appears to “win” by resorting to nuclear weapons, more countries might consider nuclear warfare as a possible weapon rather than simply a deterrent, Felgenhauer said (Pavel Felgenhauer, Moscow Times, Jan. 17).

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