By Kerry Boyd
Global Security Newswire

Anxiety about nuclear war is scarce among southern Indians, despite reports that recent tensions between India and Pakistan could escalate into a nuclear showdown, said Miriam Rajkumar, a nonproliferation policy analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

During a visit to Bangalore in December and early January, few residents expressed concern that India would suffer a nuclear attack, Rajkumar told Global Security Newswire Friday.

“Fear of nuclear war in this South Indian city is conspicuous in its absence,” she wrote in a recent analysis. 

Residents generally have expressed some concern that military deployment along the Pakistan-India border and hawkish rhetoric could entangle the country in a conflict with its neighbor, Rajkumar said (see GSN, Jan. 23).  Although there was anger over the Dec. 13 attack on the Indian Parliament, “the people here recognized the need for restraint,” Rajkumar wrote.

When India began withdrawing staff from its embassy in Pakistan, the concerns of many southern Indians grew.  However, the residents generally believe neither country would be “stupid” enough to use nuclear weapons, Rajkumar said.

The lack of fear probably does not result from thoughtful calculations about the range of Pakistan’s missiles and their ability to strike southern India, Rajkumar said.  Rather, southern Indians feel a sense of Indian military superiority and of simple removal from the tense areas.

“There is that sense of being further away,” she said.

Some Indians Argue for Restraint

Several Indian newspapers have printed editorials and opinion pieces advocating restraint, Rajkumar said.  A Hindu editorial last week urged India to de-escalate the situation along the Pakistani border.  Although India should remain skeptical about Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf’s commitment to ending terrorism against India, he has taken “some courageous steps” to crack down on Islamic militants, despite facing domestic opposition, the Hindu said. 

Rajkumar said she agreed with the editorial.  “Musharraf has done a lot of stuff that needs to be done,” she said, adding that India should de-escalate the situation and give Musharraf some room.

Continuing or increasing the “existing levels of heat” would risk damaging Musharraf’s attempts to crack down on terrorism, the Hindu said.  De-escalation and increased diplomacy would reduce the risk of “a futile and profitless war” and might give Musharraf “the necessary elbow room” to end Pakistani support for terrorism, according to the Hindu.

“If he falls, it’s definitely not in India’s interests,” Rajkumar said.  “He certainly can’t go at the pace that India wants him to go.”

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