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Iraq II: Reports on Iraq’s Weapons Mostly Agree Four recently released assessments of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction capability are in general agreement, according to an analysis by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace released last week. Reports from the British government (see GSN, Sept. 24), the CIA (see GSN, Oct. 7), the Institute for International Strategic Studies and a chapter from the Carnegie publication, Deadly Arsenals: Tracking Weapons of Mass Destruction (see GSN, July 1), all say that Iraq maintains chemical and biological weapons stocks as well as nuclear weapons aspirations. The reports differ, however, on the scope of Iraq’s weapons stock, the size of its arsenal and the time needed to build a nuclear weapon if Iraq acquired weapon-grade fissile material. Nuclear Capability Each report cited insufficient fissile material as the largest obstacle to Iraq’s nuclear weapons program. The official British study, however, puts significantly more emphasis on Iraq’s pursuit of the “indigenous ability to enrich uranium to the level needed for a nuclear weapon.” The United Kingdom and IISS allege that Iraq has attempted to procure radiological material from Africa. The reports differ again on Iraq’s ability to weaponize fissile material, if it could be obtained. The Carnegie publication and the IISS claim Iraq could manufacture a nuclear weapon in a matter of months. The CIA document and the British dossier indicate Iraq would take up to a year to gain that capability. Chemical Weapons All the reports agree that Iraq has maintained large stocks of chemical weapons — such as VX, sarin and mustard gas — while Carnegie says Iraq could still have 25,000 rockets and 15,000 artillery shells capable of delivering chemical weapons. Iraq also has extensive chemical weapons production capacity, the reports say. The official British report, however, diverges sharply when discussing Iraq’s offensive capability. The United Kingdom maintains that Iraq can deliver chemical weapons within 45 minutes of an order to do so. Iraq is not likely to have reached its pre-1991 offensive levels, according to the IISS. “Iraq’s current CW capability does not appear to pose a decisive threat against opposing military forces,” the IISS report says. It also noted that the chemical weapons could “threaten unprotected civilian populations within range, but are unlikely to cause mass casualties.” Missiles The governmental reports agree on the threat posed by Iraqi missiles and unmanned aerial aircraft. Both the United States and the United Kingdom warn of Iraq increasing the range of its rockets and developing unmanned aerial vehicles to deliver biological weapons. The other reports indicate that while Iraq remains a threat, its missile arsenal remains smaller and largely inaccurate (Andrew Krepps, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace release, Oct. 11).
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